Kyrgyzstan: Presidential election scheduled for Jan. 10

Event

Kyrgyzstan will hold a presidential election at polling stations nationwide Jan. 10. Election rallies, campaign events, and demonstrations are likely during the build-up to and in the wake of the poll. Clashes between supporters of rival political groups, or between protesters and security forces, are possible at any such gatherings that may take place.

Unofficial reports indicate that authorities have steadily increased the number of deployed security forces ahead of the election; security personnel will almost certainly deploy in urban centers and near polling stations nationwide on the day of the vote. While the build-up to the Jan. 10 election has been uncharacteristically muted, likely due to the influence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related restrictions, civil unrest has typically spiked in the wake of national elections in Kyrgyzstan. Impromptu gatherings and rival demonstrations are possible in central squares and outside major government buildings, particularly in Bishkek and Osh. Violence is possible, particularly if demonstrators attempt to occupy government buildings.

Context

Authorities intend for the presidential election to draw a line under a period of political instability that commenced in the wake of disputed and now-nullified parliamentary elections in October and the resultant resignation of then-president Sooronbay Jeenbekov. The Central Electoral Commission (CEC) ultimately overturned the results of that election, but new parliamentary elections have been pushed back. Instead, in light of the president's resignation, parliamentarians controversially extended the term of the current parliament and set a date for the presidential election.

There are 18 registered candidates. Prime Minister Sadyr Japarov, who was both freed from prison and elected to be prime minister in the midst of October's political unrest, is considered to be the leading candidate. However, his campaign has been dogged by reports of the illegal use of administrative resources and intimidation of rival candidates. Supporters of opposition candidates could hold demonstrations in response to perceived irregularities in the days following the poll.

Advice

Prepare for increased security and related disruptions until the presidential election ends, especially on polling day. Avoid political party offices, political rallies, polling stations, and government buildings where political unrest is most likely to occur. If a large gathering begins forming, immediately leave the area or seek shelter in a secure, nongovernment building. Allow additional time for travel near election events.