Western Sahara: Tensions to persist between Moroccan security forces and pro-independence Polisario Front through Jan. 31 /update 2

Event

Heightened security measures are likely to continue, while spates of civil unrest, retaliatory attacks, and localized supply chain disruptions remain possible in the western regions of Western Sahara through at least Jan. 31. Tensions between Morocco and the Frente Popular de Liberacion de Saguia el Hamra y Rio de Oro (Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Rio de Oro, Polisario Front) escalated after Rabat launched a military operation in the disputed territory's buffer zone of El Guerguerat Nov. 13. The immediate objective of the military operation was to put a stop to the blockade of trucks traveling between Moroccan-controlled areas of Western Sahara and Mauritania, as well as to ensure freedom of civilian movement and commercial activity. Moroccan authorities have blamed the Polisario Front for the demonstrations that led to severe supply chain disruptions in El Guerguerat in late October. The Polisario Front, which seeks independence for Western Sahara from Morocco, has called Rabat's military operation an act of aggression and a flagrant violation of the 1991 ceasefire.

Likelihood of Escalation
There have been reports of intermittent clashes since the military operation began. Moroccan authorities stated that the country's armed forces have been responding to fire by the Polisario Front along the UN-patrolled buffer zone since Nov. 13. Additional exchanges of gunfire, as well as mortar and other artillery strikes, remain possible along the 2,700 km (1,700 miles) Moroccan defensive wall that bifurcates the territory. The Polisario Front stated Nov. 15 that it was mobilizing thousands of volunteers to join its fight against Morocco. King Mohammad VI has stated that Morocco is committed to a ceasefire but remained firmly determined to react with the greatest severity and in self-defense against any threat to its security.

Civil Unrest and Transport Disruptions
Demonstrations remain possible throughout Western Sahara's major cities, including Dakhla, El Guerguerat, Laayoune, and Mahbes. Such protests are unlikely to be excessively disruptive. Nevertheless, Moroccan security forces will deploy to monitor and manage such gatherings. Violence and clashes between security forces and protesters cannot be ruled out. Demonstrations could also occur in Morocco and other areas throughout the region, including Algeria, particularly if the conflict escalates and there are significant military casualties.

Moroccan authorities stated they had established a security cordon and that all commercial activity and regular traffic have resumed in El Guerguerat. However, additional transport and supply chain disruptions remain possible in the event of a military escalation, which will likely prompt the Polisario Front to target Moroccan military outposts and convoys throughout the disputed territory.

Context

Western Sahara is a former Spanish protectorate. Morocco, which has been controlling the region since 1975, was engaged in an armed conflict with the Polisario Front until 1991 when the UN brokered a ceasefire. Morocco maintains that Western Sahara is an integral part of its territory; while it has offered autonomy, it has said that it is determined to retain sovereignty over the disputed territory. Morocco controls nearly 80 percent of the territory, while the self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) controls the remainder of the territory. Meanwhile, the SADR, which operates a government-in-exile in Algeria's Tindouf Province and receives support from Algiers, is committed to securing independence from Morocco and creating a sovereign country in the territory.

Following the 1991 ceasefire and as part of the agreement between Morocco and the SADR, the UN established a peacekeeping mission - the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) - to oversee the armistice and to hold a plebiscite, in which the people of Western Sahara would vote for either integration with Morocco or self-determination. The referendum has yet to materialize largely due to disagreements over who is eligible to vote within the territory.

Advice

If operating in Western Sahara, exercise extreme caution until the situation stabilizes. Strictly keep away from areas near the buffer zone. Avoid all military installations, troop convoys, and concentrations of security forces, as these may be targeted for attack by the Polisario Front. Heed the instructions of local authorities, especially with regard to any special security zones or military closure areas that may be declared during any future operations. Plan accordingly for potential transportation delays and supply chain disruptions in southern Morocco and northern Mauritania. Avoid any protests that may materialize in any part of Morocco or Western Sahara.