Belarus: Increased security and protests likely in Minsk Feb.11-12 during All Belarusian People's Assembly

Event

Opposition protests and security-related disruptions are likely in central Minsk Feb. 11-12 during the All Belarusian People's Assembly (ABPA) hosted by President Alexander Lukashenko. The event will take place at the Palace of the Republic on October Square. Anti-government activists have announced that they will attempt to disrupt the event and protests are likely outside the assembly venue as well as at other regular protest sites, including at the Minsk-Hero City Obelisk, Independence Square, Freedom Square, and Victors Avenue.

A heavy police presence and related movement restrictions, including road closures, are likely around the Palace of the Republic and other potential protest sites, which will have a strong likelihood of prompting localized business and transport disruptions. Police could move to disperse any demonstrations, particularly if participants become unruly, and will not hesitate to use force, including tear gas, rubber bullets, and baton charges, if resisted. Mass arrests and clashes are likely; reports suggest security forces could deliberately target journalists and bystanders. Anyone in the vicinity of any violence will face a significant threat of collateral injury.

Advice

Avoid all protests due to the potential for violence and exercise caution in the vicinity of potential protest venues. Heed instructions of security services and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Do not display any sign of political affiliation and be discreet when discussing the regime, including on social media. Do not take photographs of protests, members of the security forces, or military traffic.