Haiti: Nationwide protests over the ongoing political crisis are likely to persist through March /update 5

Event

Opposition groups are likely to maintain their protest campaign against President Jovenal Moise through March amid Haiti's ongoing political crisis over disputed presidential term limits. Demonstrations have been ongoing for several weeks but have escalated since Feb. 7. The largest protests tend to be held in Port-au-Prince on Sundays, with the next round scheduled for Feb. 28 in Port-au-Prince and Cap-Haitien. This trend is likely to persist; however, unannounced sporadic protests are also likely to occur at short notice.

In the capital, flashpoints for protests include Rue Champs de Mars, the National Palace, Parliament, the US Embassy, the OAS offices in Petion-Ville, as well as Delmas, Petion-Ville, and the Pelerin 5 area, where the president resides. Large demonstrations are likely in other urban centers that have been affected by protests and highly disruptive anti-government general strikes recently, including Cap-Haitien, Jeremie, Les Cayes, Petit-Goave, Mirebalais, and Saint-Marc. Protesters could also block major highways throughout the country, including National Route 1, which connects the capital to Cap-Haitien in the north.

Authorities are likely to maintain heightened security measures in the capital, especially near sensitive sites like the National Palace and the Supreme Court in the Champ de Mars area. The threat of violence is elevated at all politically motivated protests in Haiti. Violence is especially likely if police attempt to prevent protesters from reaching government buildings or affluent areas like those in Petion-Ville. Police could use teargas and rubber bullets to disperse the gatherings. Police may also fire live ammunition in the air as part of their efforts to clear the protests. There is an incidental threat to all bystanders. Protesters could attempt to block roads, burn vehicles, and vandalize private businesses during any protests that materialize.

There is also a threat of indiscriminate, isolated shootings or violent acts of criminality near the protests. Such violence is not always confirmed to be directly linked to the unrest. Haiti's capital is affected by elevated levels of crime and kidnapping, usually linked to gangs, and sporadic gunfire is common.

Authorities in the Dominican Republic have deployed heightened security to the land border with Haiti in response to the unrest. While bi-national trade is continuing, other cross-border travel may be restricted over the coming weeks.

Context

Opposition groups argue that Moise's five-year term started when his predecessor, Michel Martelly, officially stepped down in 2016 and, as such, his term should have ended Feb. 7; however, Moise, who took office in 2017, has stated that his term ends in 2022. The electoral calendar published by Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) supports Moise's presidency through February 2022, with a controversial constitutional referendum scheduled for April 25, the first round of the presidential and legislative Sept. 19, and the second round scheduled for Nov. 21, along with the local and municipal polls. Some opponents of Moise have further argued that the constitutional referendum called for by the president, who has been ruling by decree since January 2020, is illegal.

Amid the Feb. 7 political crisis, President Jovenal Moise has made allegations of a plot to overthrow and kill him; 23 people allegedly linked to an attempted coup plot have been arrested. Meanwhile, opposition leaders have agreed on a two-year transitional government plan and appointed Supreme Court Judge Joseph Mecene Jean-Louis, who has now been retired as a judge by Moise, as their interim president, parallel to Moise's government.

Given that it is currently unlikely that Moise will step down before the elections are held and that Haiti's election periods are known to be marred by violence and political instability, there is a possibility that the security situation could further worsen over the coming months. The protests will also be fueled by Haiti's severe economic crisis, ongoing fuel shortages, and general insecurity, especially relating to gang violence and kidnappings.

Advice

Avoid all protests; shelter in place if unrest occurs nearby. Monitor local media for information regarding protest activity and road closures, especially in Port-au-Prince. Do not attempt to pass through roadblocks; wait for authorities to remove them. Confirm all business appointments.