Haiti: Opposition protests likely to escalate amid Feb. 7 deadline for the President to step down /update 1

Event

Opposition groups and civil society organizations in Haiti are likely to escalate their protests against President Jovenal Moise through at least Feb. 7, the date on which opposition groups maintain Moise's term constitutionally ends. Several opposition leaders have agreed on a two-year transitional government plan, the so-called Terrace Garden Final Accord, which would create a commission of seven opposition members and seven civil society members tasked with choosing an interim president, prime minister, and members of a transitional government. However, Moise has refused to step down, increasing the threat of major unrest.

While protests have been ongoing for several weeks, highly disruptive protests, including blockades, the potential destruction of property, and clashes with police, may increase in scale as the protests escalate. The largest protests are likely to center on Port-au-Prince. Flashpoints for protests in the capital include Rue Champs de Mars, Palais National, and Parliament, as well as Delmas, Petion-Ville, and the Pelerin 5 area, where the president resides. Protests outside the US Embassy have also become more common. Large demonstrations are likely in other urban centers that have been affected by protests and highly disruptive anti-government general strikes recently, including Cap-Haitien, Jeremie, Les Cayes, Petit-Goave, Mirebalais, and Saint-Marc.

Police will probably deploy in force near all large protests, especially in Port-au-Prince. The protests carry an elevated threat of clashes. Protesters could attempt to block roads, burn vehicles, and vandalize private businesses during any protests that materialize.

Context

Opposition groups argue that Moise's five-year term started when his predecessor, Michel Martelly, officially stepped down in 2016; however, Moise, who took office in 2017, has stated that his term ends in 2022. The electoral calendar published by Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) supports Moise presidency through February 2022, with a controversial constitutional referendum scheduled for April 25, the first round of the presidential and legislative on Sept. 19, and the second round scheduled for Nov. 21, along with the local and municipal polls. Some opponents of Moise have further argued that the constitutional referendum called for by the president, who has been ruling by decree since January 2020, is illegal. Given that it is highly unlikely that Moise will step down before the elections are held and that Haiti's election periods are known to be marred by violence and political instability, there is a possibility that the security situation could further worsen over the coming months. The protests will also be fueled by Haiti's severe economic crisis, ongoing fuel shortages, and general insecurity.

Advice

Avoid all protests; shelter in place if unrest occurs nearby. Monitor local media for information regarding protest activity and road closures, especially in Port-au-Prince. Do not attempt to pass through roadblocks; wait for authorities to remove them. Confirm all business appointments.