Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Dujuan tracks westward towards the Philippines Feb. 18 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Dujuan (locally known as Auring) continues to strengthen as it tracks westward in the southern Philippine Sea Feb. 18. As of 1400 PHST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1,457 km (906 miles) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen to a Severe Tropical Storm by early Feb. 19 and maintain strength through at least Feb. 21. The system is forecast to track northwestward toward the Philippines beginning Feb. 20, where a possible landfall is forecast in the northeastern Mindanao Region late Feb. 20-early Feb. 21. Following landfall, the system will continue to track northwestward across the Philippines as it begins to weaken. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of Feb. 18, authorities in Palau have maintained a Tropical Cyclone Advisory in response to Tropical Storm Dujuan. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
Tropical Storm Dujuan is forecast to bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas across Palau and the Philippines over the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, and rivers, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system tracks close to land. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, damaging wind gusts will persist. Widespread and prolonged power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines are possible.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through at least Feb. 23. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
WSO Palau - National Weather Service