Belarus: Opposition leaders call for anti-government protests to intensify nationwide from March 25 /update 14

Event

Opposition leaders, including 2020 presidential election candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, have called for anti-government protests to intensify from March 25. While it is currently unclear what form any large-scale protest action will take, activists and workers could hold demonstrations, go-slow protests, and labor strikes across Belarus. Opposition activists typically hold major demonstrations on Sundays and, in the months following the Aug. 9 2020 presidential election, also held daily rallies, marches, and blockades in cities nationwide. Further protests are possible at short notice in the run up to March 25.

Actions in Minsk are generally the largest and most disruptive; at one stage following the election, tens of thousands of activists attended the Sunday demonstrations. Protest locations in Minsk include the Minsk-Hero City Obelisk, Independence Square, Freedom Square, and Victors Avenue. A heavy police presence and roadblocks are often deployed in these areas as security forces attempt to prevent protesters from gathering. Activists in Minsk have staged large simultaneous protests in all of the city's neighborhoods. They have also staged regular go-slow protests on major roads during rush hour periods, including 1st Ring Road, Krasnaya Avenue, Independence Avenue, and Partizanskiy Avenue. Additionally, supporters of arrested activists can gather outside the detention center on Okrestina Street. Large protests are particularly likely following any significant developments.

Authorities will deploy significant numbers of security personnel in Minsk and other major cities in response to any gatherings. Large crowds and associated security measures will likely prompt transport disruptions near protest locations. Riot police have used tear gas, rubber bullets, flash grenades, and warning shots using live rounds to disperse demonstrators at previous actions. Mass arrests and clashes are likely at protests; reports suggest security forces may have deliberately targeted journalists and bystanders in the past. Even if not targeted, any bystanders would face a significant threat of physical harm near any violence. There is a greater likelihood of violence if rival activists gather in the same area.

Coordinated and wildcat strikes are also possible from March 25; employees at various enterprises across the country have engaged in numerous strikes since the election. State employees and workers at various enterprises across the country have also walked out in solidarity with the protest movement and could do so again. Participating employees could rally outside their places of employment and the government ministry responsible for their industry, or join opposition gatherings in urban centers during strikes.

Nationwide disruptions to mobile and fixed-line internet services are possible until the protests abate; authorities in Belarus have previously restricted internet access to disrupt the activities of opposition groups.

Context

The size and intensity of anti-government protests have abated in recent weeks, partly as a result of a significant security force crackdown on opposition activity, as well as protest fatigue among activists. In recent years, opponents of President Alexander Lukashenko have adopted March 25, which marks the anniversary of the independence of the Belarusian Democratic Republic in 1918, as a rallying point for opposition activity. The protest call is likely an attempt to reinvigorate the campaign and maintain pressure on the authorities.

The protest campaign began following Lukashenko's landslide victory in the nation's Aug. 9 2020 presidential election. The Central Electoral Commission confirmed Lukashenko's sixth term in office with more than 80 percent of the vote in what activists are calling a rigged election. Tsikhanouskaya, the leading opposition candidate, claimed victory Aug. 14, 2020 and subsequently created the "Coordination Council," an organization led by major opposition figures with the goal of removing Lukashenko from office. Activists have issued various demands but are mainly seeking Lukashenko's resignation, free and fair elections, and the release of political prisoners. Disruptive gatherings of various sizes have been taking place in urban centers nationwide, including Minsk, Brest, Gomel, Hrodna, Lida, and Vitebsk, as well as in smaller towns.

Police action against protesters, including preemptive arrests and roadblocks, increased sharply in September 2020. Lukashenko has also instructed state security forces to clamp down on unauthorized opposition gatherings. Authorities have since adopted an increasingly confrontational approach in the face of unauthorized demonstrations. Many leading opposition figures have either fled the country or are being detained by the authorities. Plainclothes police officers have also detained numerous activists at home or work on various charges.

Advice

Avoid all protests due to the potential for violence. Heed instructions of security services and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Reconfirm all travel bookings and business appointments that may be impacted by strikes; plan accordingly for supply chain disruptions. Check public transport schedules and local traffic conditions for disruptions and allow extra time for travel in major Belarusian cities. Do not display any sign of political affiliation and be discreet when discussing the regime, including on social media. Do not take photographs of protests, members of the security forces, or military traffic. Allow additional time to navigate immigration and exit procedures to allow for potential excessive scrutiny of identification and visa documentation.