Indonesia: Rallies by rival factions of the Democratic Party likely nationwide through mid-March

Event

Opposing Democratic Party factions led by Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono and Moeldoko will likely stage rival demonstrations nationwide, especially in Jakarta, through mid-March amid an ongoing internal dispute. Likely protest sites in the capital include the Ministry of Law and Human Rights, the State Palace, and the party's national headquarters in Menteng District. In other provinces, including East Java, Papua, and South Sulawesi, party members supporting Agus Yudhoyono will probably hold rallies at the party's regional headquarters or prominent intersections and monuments. Supporters of the Moeldoko-led rival faction may also stage counterrallies nearby. Dozens to hundreds of people may participate in any action, especially gatherings in Jakarta.

Authorities will likely heighten security during any protest. Reports indicate tight security at the Ministry of Law and Human Rights; increased security is probable at other likely protest sites in Jakarta. Localized transport and business disruptions may occur, particularly if activists occupy nearby roads. Clashes between rival groups of supporters or between security personnel and demonstrators are possible. Mass arrests may occur if authorities consider any rally to violate COVID-19 restrictions.

Context

The current Democratic Party chairman Agus Yudhoyono is the son of former Indonesian president and Democratic Party leader Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Several party members have opposed Agus Yudhoyono's appointment as a party chairman, claiming that he lacks the necessary experience for the role. The Moeldoko-led faction organized an event in North Sumatra Province March 4-6 that allegedly selected Moeldoko as the new party chairman; Agus Yudhoyono's supporters say that the party event and Moeldoko's alleged selection as new party chief were unconstitutional. Both factions have claimed that the Ministry of Law and Human Rights, which has the authority to recognize a political party's internal leadership, would recognize their group as the Democratic Party's rightful management. Agus Yudhoyono has also publicly called on President Joko Widodo to intervene and prevent Moeldoko from taking over power in the Democratic Party.

Advice

Avoid any demonstrations as a precaution. Use caution if operating the likely protest sites in Jakarta. Seek updated information from local contacts on rally locations, as protest organizers may not announce details in advance. Plan for possible disruptions near rallies and seek alternative routes to circumvent affected areas. If any violence erupts nearby, immediately depart the area. Heed all official security and transport advisories.