Africa: Muslims to observe Ramadan April 13-May 13 regionwide

Event

Muslims in several African countries will begin their annual observance of the holy month of Ramadan on or around April 13; the exact date depends on the first sighting of the lunar crescent and may vary locally by one or two days. During Ramadan, Muslims refrain from eating, drinking, and smoking from dawn until dusk. Some government and business offices may alter operating hours and maintain adjusted schedules to accommodate the holiday; the impact of Ramadan on those operations will likely be more pronounced in predominantly Muslim countries, such as Burkina Faso, Comoros, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, and Uganda. Officials and hardline Muslims in some countries, including Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, and Somalia, may forcibly try to close restaurants and other businesses that are perceived to violate Ramadan ordinances and promote activity they deem to be "unIslamic."

While practices generally vary by country, the widely observed religious introspection leads to slow-paced daylight hours, and the breaking of the fast leads to festive gatherings late into the night.

Measures introduced by countries to halt the spread of COVID-19, such as domestic and international travel restrictions, movement controls, business closures, and bans on public gatherings, are all likely to impact festivities this year. Authorities will almost certainly enhance monitoring and enforcement of COVID-19 restrictions, resulting in sporadic and localized violence.

Eid al-Fitr (Feast of Breaking the Fast) occurs at the end of Ramadan on or around May 13. Celebrations may last one to seven days. Businesses, government offices, foreign embassies, banks, and schools will likely close for Eid al-Fitr in many countries. Significant air, road, rail, and maritime travel restrictions in place due to COVID-19 are likely to continue through Ramadan to prevent widespread movement of people. Authorities may partially lift domestic travel restrictions for the festival, prompting overcrowding and high demand for available transportation; some nations may introduce such relaxations if disease activity decreases. Although nonessential business operations will likely remain impacted by measures to contain COVID-19 in most countries, partial relaxation for retail outlets is possible around Eid Al-Fitr.

An upsurge in militancy is possible in areas with active insurgencies, including in parts of East Africa and the Sahel sub-region. Additional security personnel could be deployed around major hotels, busy intersections, transport hubs, commercial and financial centers, government buildings, military installations, diplomatic missions, international organization offices, tourist centers, and any areas where foreigners tend to congregate. Increased security is also possible around soft targets, such as markets, shopping centers, restaurants, places of worship, and other crowded public areas.

Context

The Al-Shabaab militant group in Somalia continues to pose security threats in East Africa, particularly in Somalia and Kenya. During Ramadan, security forces typically go on high alert in countries that have contributed troops to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), including Uganda, Ethiopia, Burundi, Kenya, and Djibouti. Al-Shabaab has carried out large-scale attacks in Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti, and Uganda in the past.

The Islamic State's West Africa Province - the Nigeria-based militant group commonly known as Boko Haram - regularly attacks civilian, commercial, government, and military targets in northern Nigeria, especially in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa states. Boko Haram has also staged major bombings in other areas - including the cities of Kano, Kaduna, Jos, and Abuja. Moreover, Boko Haram militants have carried out cross-border attacks in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger.

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its affiliated groups, such as Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wa al-Moumin (Group for the Victory of Islam and the Faithful, JNIM), pose a significant threat in the Sahel sub-region, which includes Burkina Faso, northern Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. These groups have also been responsible for several kidnappings of locals and foreigners in the region.

Advice

Remain respectful of Islamic traditions; do not eat or drink in the presence of Muslims during the daytime. Consider limiting exposure to possible militant target sites such as marketplaces, government buildings, and places of worship. Do not discuss sensitive political or religious matters in public.

Follow all official instructions; abide by national health and safety measures. Minimize outdoor activity to the extent possible. Plan for increased security in public places. Plan for transport delays, especially on arterial routes, before and after Eid al-Fitr. Reconfirm business appointments, deliveries, work, and travel arrangements. Do not check out of accommodations without confirming onward travel. Consider delaying traveling if experiencing symptoms associated with COVID-19, as they may prompt increased scrutiny and delays. Liaise with trusted contacts for further updates and guidance. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Ensure contingency plans account for further disruptive measures or extensions of current restrictions.