UK: Further violent protests likely in Northern Ireland through at least April 18 /update 1

Event

Further violent unrest is likely in Northern Ireland through at least April 18 after riots in West Belfast the night of April 8. Protesters targeted police with petrol bombs and other missiles on Lanark Way in the Blackstaff Stop area, prompting officers to deploy water cannon. The location lies at the junction of the predominantly Loyalist Shankhill Road and the mainly Nationalist Springfield Road.

Protests and counterprotests from rival communities are particularly likely in so-called “interface” areas, which continue to act as flashpoints for sectarian tensions. Notable interface areas lie around the following locations:

• East Belfast: Short Strand

• North Belfast: Alexandra Park, Duncairn Gardens, Lower Oldpark area, Whitewell area

• South Belfast: Ormeau Bridge,

• West Belfast: Broadway; Donegall Road; Holy Cross (Ardoyne); Shankill, Falls, and Springfield road areas

• Londonderry: Bishop Street/Fountain estate, Dungiven Road, Tullyalley estate, Currynierin estate

• Portadown: Corcrain Road/Obins Drive

Violence is highly likely during any related protests. Heightened security measures around any gatherings will likely prompt localized disruptions. Bystanders face a significant incidental threat near any violence.

Context

Increased civil unrest has been reported in Northern Ireland since March 29. More than 27 police officers have so far been injured in clashes with demonstrators. Unrest began in predominantly loyalist areas, apparently in reaction to perceived dual standards in applying COVID-19 restrictions to sectarian-related gatherings. It later spread to interface areas, where members of the opposing Loyalist and Nationalist communities live in proximity. Outbreaks of violence in Carrickfergus and Newtownabbey April 4-5 were reportedly linked to security raids targeting the Ulster Defence Association, a banned Loyalist paramilitary group.

Observers have also linked some of the unrest to dissatisfaction with the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) following the UK's withdrawal from the bloc. As part of the TCA, and to prevent the imposition of any border on the island of Ireland, the British province of Ulster has remained with the EU's customs territory, with a de facto customs border being implemented between Northern Ireland and the UK mainland. Any separation of Northern Ireland from the UK as a whole is deeply unpopular among the unionist community.

Tensions could rise further in the coming months during the unionist community's marching season, which traditionally runs from April through August and peaks around July 1 and July 12. Marches near or through strongly Republican areas often inflame sectarian feelings and have the potential to spark disruptive and violent protests.

Advice

Exercise caution in Northern Ireland and strictly avoid all protests as a routine security precaution and to minimize disruptions. Minimize time spent near interface areas and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Do not discuss the political situation with strangers, and do not wear any symbols that identify affiliation to any particularly sectarian community.