Afghanistan: Spread of demonstrations possible as protests continue in Faryab Province May 20

Event

Activists opposed to the controversial appointment of a new governor in Faryab Province are likely to continue protests through at least the end of May, with demonstrations possibly spreading from Faryab to other areas of northern Afghanistan. Demonstrators say the appointment of the governor was undemocratic. Key political leaders in northern Afghanistan, most notably former Vice President Abdul Rashid Dostum, have condemned the governor's appointment and have threatened to escalate opposition to the move. In addition to Faryab, protests are most likely in provinces where Dostum and his allies have significant influence and support, specifically Balkh, Jowzjan, Sari Pul, and Samangan.

Authorities will almost certainly deploy additional security personnel near government buildings and any demonstration venues as a precaution. Protesters may march along roadways, prompting localized ground transport disruptions. Demonstrators could also impose roadblocks on regional highways. Clashes between police and protesters are possible. Business disruptions are likely if any major security disturbances occur.

Context

Dostum is a highly powerful and controversial figure in northern Afghanistan. His support base is strongest among the ethnic Uzbek population. Although he is nominally committed to the current Afghan government and constitution, he is widely regarded as a warlord. Forces commanded by Dostum have been accused of numerous human rights abuses during various armed conflicts in Afghanistan going as far back as the Soviet-Afghan War. Thousands of fighters are loyal to Dostum, and any prolonged dispute between Dostum and the Afghan government could result in sporadic incidents of armed conflict. Significant disagreements between Dostum and President Ashraf Ghani could also allow the Taliban to increase its influence in parts of northern Afghanistan.

Advice

Confirm ground transport arrangements in affected areas of northern Afghanistan. Heed all traffic and security advisories. Exercise caution near government buildings. Monitor local media sources for updates on protests and road conditions, as organizers may not announce details in advance. Avoid protests due to possible skirmishes. If violence breaks out, leave the area immediately. Follow all instructions from security personnel. Allow additional travel time near rallies.