Afghanistan: Adverse weather forecast across much of the country through at least May 11

Adverse weather is forecast across much of Afghanistan through at least May 11. Heavy rainfall is expected across northern and eastern regions and strong winds are expected across much of the country over the coming days. The Afghanistan Department of Meteorology has issued a weather warning advising heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and possible flash flooding are likely in parts of Badakhshan, Baghlan, Balkh, Bamiyan, Faryab, Jowzjan, Kabul, Kapisa, Khost, Kunar, Kunduz, Laghman, Logar, Maidan Wardak, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Paktia, Panjshir, Parwan, Samangan, Sar-e-Pol, and Takhar provinces May 10-11. Rainfall totals of 1.5-4.5 cm (0.6-1.8 inches) are possible in affected areas. The heaviest precipitation is forecast across parts of northern Badakhshan, northern Baghlan, far eastern Balkh, northeastern Kunar, eastern Laghman, southern Nuristan, far northeastern Samangan, and northern Takhar provinces; red warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) are in place for these areas. Orange and yellow warnings are in place across the rest of the affected areas. Strong winds gusting up to 70 kph (43 mph) are expected in central, northern, northwestern, and southwestern regions. and may generate dust storms in arid areas; severe dust storms have been reported in parts of Kunduz Province as of May 9.

Heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high dust levels without rain.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancelations at airports in the affected areas. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.