Belarus: Opposition activists to protest in Minsk May 9

Event

A leading figure in the Belarusian opposition movement, Pavel Latushko, has called for anti-government activists to protest in Minsk, May 9. The call to protest is timed to coincide with Victory Day celebrations taking place in Belarus the same day. Specific locations have not been announced. Activists may gather at Victory Day events organized by the government, which include Victory Square at 11:00 and 21:30, the Sports Palace from 12:00, and State Flag Square at 18:00. Additional likely locations based on previous protests include the Minsk Hero City Obelisk, Independence Square, Freedom Square, and Victors Avenue. Likely participation in the protests is currently unclear. Additional protests are likely in urban centers nationwide.

Authorities will deploy significant numbers of security personnel in Minsk and other major cities to facilitate government Victory Day events and to deter opposition gatherings. Large crowds and associated security measures will likely prompt transport disruptions near protest locations. Riot police have used tear gas, rubber bullets, flash grenades, and warning shots using live rounds to disperse demonstrators at previous actions. Mass arrests and clashes are likely at opposition protests; reports suggest security forces may have deliberately targeted journalists and bystanders in the past. Even if not targeted, bystanders would face a significant threat of physical harm near any violence.

Context

Opposition activists denounce the Aug. 2020 presidential election that reportedly returned over 80 percent of the vote for incumbent Alexander Lukashenko as rigged. They are demanding Lukashenko's resignation, a repeat of the elections, and the release of all political prisoners. Mass anti-government protests have been taking place in urban centers nationwide, though the frequency, size, and intensity has abated through 2021, partly as a result of a significant security force crackdown on opposition activity, as well as protest fatigue among activists. Sporadic actions are likely to continue in the coming months; a return to sustained and disruptive protests is possible if opposition leaders are able to effectively organize activists.

Advice

Avoid the protests due to the potential for violence. Heed instructions from security services and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Check public transport schedules and local traffic conditions for disruptions and allow extra time for travel in Minsk, May 9. Do not display any sign of political affiliation and be discreet when discussing the regime, including on social media. Do not take photographs of protests, members of security forces, or military traffic.