Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm In-Fa tracking northwestward in the Philippine Sea as of early July 19 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm In-Fa (known in the Philippines as Fabian) is tracking north-northwestward in the Philippine Sea July 19. As of 09:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 637 km (334 miles) southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a typhoon by early July 20 as it continues tracking northwestward toward Japan's Ryukyu Archipelago. In-Fa will turn to track in a westerly direction and make a close approach south of Okinawa July 21. The system is likely to make another close approach to northern Taiwan July 23 before it turns northwestwards toward mainland China's Fujian Province through July 24. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and minor changes could occur in the coming days.

Government Advisories
The Japan Meteorological Administration has issued red warnings (the second-highest level on a three-tier scale) for large waves for the Daito Islands through at least July 21. Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has stated that Tropical Storm In-Fa is likely to bring minimal impacts to the Philippines. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the storm's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards; this is especially true in areas previously impacted by tropical systems earlier this season. The possibility of localized evacuations due to Tropical Storm In-Fa cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
Tropical Storm In-Fa will bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and storm surge across the affected area through at least July 24. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system approaches land. A persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, Tropical Storm In-Fa could produce damaging wind gusts in areas along its forecast track. Localized power outages due to uprooted trees and toppled utility lines are possible.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions through at least July 24. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Japan Meteorological Agency
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration