Zambia: Heightened security, localized disruptions likely nationwide in run-up to Aug. 12 general election

Event

Heightened security, along with an increase in political rallies and protests, are likely across Zambia in the run-up to the nation's Aug. 12 general election. During the polls, Zambians will cast ballots for the president, as well as members of the National Assembly. A total of 16 candidates will compete in the presidential race with incumbent President Edgar Lungu of the Patriotic Front (PF) and Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND) being the frontrunners. The electoral process could extend beyond Aug. 12 if no presidential candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote in the first round of the polls; such an outcome would force a second round of voting to take place at a later date.

While extensive violence is unlikely, crowds may gather to demonstrate in support of various candidates or to protest certain social issues despite authorities having imposed limitations on campaign actions and prohibiting political rallies due to increasing COVID-19 cases. However, such gatherings will probably be smaller than in previous years due to disease activity and related restrictions. Sporadic clashes or other types of confrontations cannot be ruled out, particularly if supporters of rival political parties come in close proximity to each other. Security forces will almost certainly deploy to monitor any such gatherings that may materialize and safeguard election-related sites. Localized business and transport disruptions are likely near any demonstrations or political rally sites.

Context

Elections in Zambia have typically been largely peaceful, although some violent incidents have occurred. On June 15, the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) temporarily banned all campaigning by the PF and UPND in the Lusaka, Mpulungu, Namwala, and Nakonde districts due to political violence. It also prohibited all political roadshow convoys nationwide in an effort to curb the spread of COVID-19, limiting road campaigning events to no more than one vehicle equipped with a public address system. On June 28, the ECZ lifted the suspension on PF and UPND campaign activities in the Mpulungu, Namwala, and Nakonde districts citing satisfactory behavior by the two parties in those jurisdictions; however, the ban remains in effect in the Lusaka district due to continued reports of acts of violence, such as assaults between members of the two opposing organizations.

Advice

If operating in Zambia, exercise increased personal vigilance in the coming weeks. Avoid all demonstrations and election-related events as a precaution. Exercise caution near polling stations and counting centers. Keep away from areas where security personnel appear to be deploying. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe non-governmental building. Monitor trusted local news sources for developments. Heed all instructions from security personnel and allow extra time to reach destinations near rally locations.