03 Aug 2021 | 10:58 PM UTC
Afghanistan: Increased militant violence, mainly by the Taliban, continuing nationwide as of Aug. 3 /update 1
Increased militant violence, mainly by the Taliban, ongoing in Afghanistan as of Aug. 3 as peace talks continue without making progress.
Event
Militant attacks and fighting during security operations are ongoing across parts of Afghanistan as of Aug. 3. The Taliban has captured dozens of districts in multiple provinces, especially in western and northern Afghanistan, including Badghis, Balkh, and Herat provinces. Clashes between militants and government forces have been reported in or near multiple provincial capitals in recent days, including Herat city, Herat, as well as Kandahar city, Kandahar, and Lashkar Gah, Helmand. Government forces remain in control of many districts in central and eastern provinces. International forces continue to complete their withdrawal from the country. Although US forces plan to fully leave by Aug. 31, US forces have continued to conduct airstrikes against Taliban targets. Militants continue to organize small-scale attacks in urban centers, including the capital city, Kabul. Such attacks usually target government employees and security personnel, but civilians are often wounded or killed as well. Officials blame the Taliban for most of the attacks, as well as increased criminal activity and roadblocks. The security situation is certain to remain volatile in the coming weeks.
Security
The government will likely deploy additional forces to provincial capitals under threat by Taliban forces as well as Kabul. Heightened security and additional clashes are likely near major cities. Minor bombings and gunfights are typical during such events, and ensuing security operations could last days. Military installations, government buildings, religious sites, and transport hubs are potential targets in cities. Civilian areas are sometimes targeted during engagements.
Extortion and kidnapping by militants and other opportunistic crime groups are also possible, especially along highways in affected areas. Clashes may also occur if traders or other civil groups launch demonstrations to demand increased security measures; government offices are popular protest locations.
Transport and Commercial
The Taliban has captured several border crossings with Iran, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Ground transport and shipping disruptions through captured border crossings are likely. Militants often erect blockades and illegal vehicle checkpoints, where the collection of illicit taxes and kidnapping of vehicle occupants occur. Most highways across Afghanistan, including the Kabul-Kandahar Highway, remain insecure; main roads connecting provinces to Kabul and other urban centers are worst affected. Reports indicate diversions by cargo handlers to avoid increased harassment and possible kidnapping.
Flight disruptions are possible due to militant attacks and clashes between government forces and the Taliban. Authorities had suspended flights at Herat International Airport (HEA) due to fighting in the area and at Kandahar's Ahmed Shah Baba International Airport (KDH) following a rocket attack late July 31. Disruptions to business operations, public transportation, government office operations, aid agencies' functioning, and consulate services for foreign nationals, as well as shortages of some goods due to business closures, shipping delays, or looting are likely to occur in impacted areas. Power supply disruptions are possible due to attacks targeting electricity distribution facilities, especially in urban centers like Kabul.
Context
While US forces continue to provide air support for Afghan forces, the government continues to struggle to halt Taliban advances. Fighting between militants and the Afghan military is occurring near or in multiple provincial capitals, especially in northern and western provinces. Additionally, other groups that are not part of the negotiations, such as the Islamic State (IS), could still carry out attacks. Talks between Taliban and government leaders are ongoing but have failed to halt the fighting. Taliban leaders are demanding new negotiations and a government without President Ashraf Ghani. Ghani has refused to give up power until the next election takes place. Security personnel will likely continue to protect sensitive sites, such as diplomatic and government buildings in Kabul. Small-scale and mass-casualty attacks remain a concern nationwide.
Advice
Exercise caution and avoid protests. Defer travel to sites with ongoing security operations; if operating in such an area, remain sheltered in a secure indoor location, away from windows. Confirm business appointments, transport reservations, road status, and deliveries in advance. Ensure contingency plans account for business, transport, and utility disruptions if operating in an affected area. Consider alternative shipping routes and power supply if businesses are heavily reliant on state-provided electricity. Abide by traffic, security, and evacuation advisories. Liaise with trusted contacts for further updates and guidance. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.
