13 Aug 2021 | 10:40 PM UTC
Afghanistan: Taliban continuing nationwide offensive as of Aug. 14; most cities under Taliban control /update 2
Taliban continuing nationwide offensive in Afghanistan as of Aug. 14. Most cities under Taliban control, further territorial gains likely.
Event
Militant attacks and fighting during security operations are ongoing across parts of Afghanistan as of Aug. 14. Since Aug. 6, the Taliban has launched an offensive into multiple cities and has captured over half of the country's provincial capitals, including major urban centers such as Herat, Kandahar, and Kunduz. In some locations, local political and tribal leaders have facilitated the surrender of cities and towns to the Taliban without significant fighting. Numerous army, police, and pro-government militia fighters have surrendered to the Taliban in multiple areas of the country. Fighting between the Taliban and government forces is ongoing in many provincial capitals still nominally under government control.
The US and UK have deployed additional military personnel in Kabul to help secure Hamid Karzai International Airport (KBL) and facilitate the evacuation of their embassies and citizens. Although US officials have stated that they plan to fully withdraw military forces by Aug. 31, US forces have continued to conduct airstrikes against Taliban targets. Multiple US and Afghan government airstrikes have occurred in cities effectively captured by the Taliban.
Militants continue to organize attacks in locations throughout the country. Such attacks usually target government employees and security personnel, but civilians are often killed or wounded as well. The security situation will remain extremely volatile in the coming weeks. As Taliban forces approach Kabul's outskirts, there is an increased risk of shooting, rocket, and mortar attacks in the city. Additionally, militants, especially those associated with the Islamic State (IS), may carry out attacks, including suicide bombings. These attacks could target foreigners, security forces, Taliban operatives, and religious minority groups.
Security
The government will likely deploy additional forces to sensitive locations in areas under its control. Heightened security and additional clashes are likely in major cities. Military installations, government buildings, religious sites, and transport hubs are potential targets in cities. Civilian areas are sometimes targeted during engagements.
Extortion and kidnapping by militants and other opportunistic criminal groups are also possible, especially along highways. Clashes may also occur if traders or other civil groups launch demonstrations to demand increased security measures; government offices are popular protest locations.
Transport and Commercial
The Taliban has captured most international land border crossings to and from Afghanistan. Ground transport and shipping disruptions through captured border crossings are likely. Militants often erect blockades and illegal vehicle checkpoints, where the collection of illicit taxes and kidnapping of vehicle occupants may occur. Most sections of highways in the country are effectively under Taliban control. Reports indicate diversions by cargo handlers to avoid increased harassment and possible kidnapping. Prices of essential commodities have risen amid shortages, especially in Kabul.
Additional flight disruptions are likely due to militant attacks and clashes between government forces and the Taliban. Afghan authorities have suspended operations at airports seized by the Taliban, including Herat International Airport (HEA) and Kandahar's Ahmed Shah Baba International Airport (KDH). The Taliban has reportedly allowed at least one noncommercial flight at Fayzabad Airport (FBD). Disruptions to business operations, public transportation, government office operations, aid agencies' functioning, and consulate services for foreign nationals, as well as shortages of some goods due to business closures, shipping delays, or looting could occur throughout the country, including in Kabul. Power supply disruptions are possible due to attacks targeting electricity distribution facilities, especially in urban centers like Kabul.
Context
In recent months, the Taliban has made rapid territorial gains in numerous parts of Afghanistan. However, prior to Aug. 6, Taliban control had been limited to rural areas. Zaranj, in far southwestern Afghanistan, was the first provincial capital to be effectively captured by the Taliban since 2001. Within approximately one week of Zaranj's capture, the Taliban took control of over half of Afghanistan’s 34 provincial capitals. As of Aug. 14, Afghan government forces have been unable to retake any provincial capital seized by the Taliban in recent days.
While negotiations are possible between Afghan government officials and the Taliban, the Taliban is unlikely to accept any agreement short of a negotiated surrender. Taliban leaders have rejected any settlement unless President Ashraf Ghani agrees to resign. Talks between Taliban leadership and foreign governments, most notably the US, may impact the extent and intensity of fighting in the country.
Several embassies in Kabul have called for their respective citizens to leave the country immediately due to prevailing security conditions and the limited availability of consulate support. Further attacks on provincial capitals are highly likely. Taliban attacks on Kabul may also occur as the group makes rapid advances.
Advice
Follow official directives. Foreign nationals should strongly consider deferring all travel to Afghanistan and exiting the country immediately. Exercise caution and avoid any protests. Defer travel to sites with ongoing security operations; if operating in such an area, remain sheltered in a secure indoor location, away from windows. Confirm business appointments, transport reservations, road status, and deliveries in advance. Ensure contingency plans account for business, transport, and utility disruptions if operating in an affected area. Consider alternative shipping routes and power supply if businesses are heavily reliant on state-provided electricity. Abide by traffic, security, and evacuation advisories. Liaise with trusted contacts for further updates and guidance. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. To the extent possible, avoid large concentrations of security personnel and other potential militant targets.
