Afghanistan: Tensions to remain high nationwide as of Aug. 30 following Taliban takeover

Event

Tensions are likely to remain high in Afghanistan in the short term, following the Taliban's swift offensive to capture the country. The militant group controls most of Afghanistan's territory and is working to form a government in Kabul. The Taliban will probably maintain heightened security measures across Afghanistan, especially Kabul and other major cities and main transport routes, to ensure order and prevent possible security disturbances. Taliban fighters have used violence, including live fire on civilians and warning shots, to control unruly crowds.

In Kabul, the Taliban will likely maintain checkpoints and other measures in the coming weeks amid threats from Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K). A 21:00-dawn curfew remains in place for the capital, preventing residents from leaving home, though enforcement has varied. Taliban leaders have promised to secure Hamid Karzai International Airport (KBL) after the planned departure of US troops Aug. 31, and intense security measures are likely to continue near KBL in the near term. Taliban leaders are reportedly finalizing a deal with Turkey and Qatar to operate KBL, but commercial flight disruptions are likely to continue and could intensify until the deal takes effect.

Taliban leaders have offered amnesty to everyone in the country. However, central leadership does not exercise effective control over all Taliban factions. Numerous reports from across the country indicate that Taliban fighters have conducted raids looking for individuals that aided NATO operations in the country and carried out abductions and killings. Such activity could increase following the withdrawal of remaining NATO forces. Extortion and kidnapping by opportunistic criminal groups are possible, especially along highways.

Anti-Taliban forces, comprised of local militias, former military and special forces personnel, members of the ousted government, and forces loyal to Ahmad Massoud, are active in the country. Fighting between local militias and Taliban forces has also occurred in areas of Baghlan and Kapisa provinces and could take place in other areas of the country without warning. Clashes in some areas have reportedly killed dozens of people. The so-called National Resistance Front (NRF) continues to hold the Panjshir Valley. The NRF claims to have thousands of troops prepared to hold the valley, which the Taliban has never controlled. Meanwhile, Taliban leaders have deployed forces to the area and claim to have the Panjshir Valley surrounded. Both Taliban and NRF leaders publicly want a achieve a negotiated end to the standoff; however, fighting could break out in the area at short notice.

Locals may continue to stage demonstrations over various issues in the coming weeks. Protesters have gathered in multiple cities, including Jalalabad and Khost, resulting in clashes with Taliban forces. Taliban fighters have also reportedly opened fire on protesters to disperse crowds. If they occur, demonstrations are particularly likely in northern provinces and the Hazarajat region, where the Taliban have less support.

The terrorism threat is likely to remain high in the near term. IS-K militants detonated two bombs in Kabul Aug. 26, killing dozens of people outside of KBL. IS-K reportedly intended to detonate a car bomb near KBL but was struck by a US drone. Several rocket attacks have also occurred targeting Kabul, especially KBL, in recent days. Additional suicide bombings and rocket attacks remain likely, as IS-K militants are opposed to the Taliban. IS-K operatives could also target foreigners and religious minority groups. Taliban fighters may launch operations against IS-K fighters in the coming weeks, potentially leading to more clashes.

The Taliban controls all international land border crossings. Although border crossings have reopened, Taliban officials reportedly only permit Afghanis with active visas to enter neighboring countries. Some reports indicate that the Taliban have reached deals with some nations to permit Afghan citizens to enter nearby countries after NATO forces leave. Taliban fighters have erected blockades and vehicle checkpoints, where the collection of illicit taxes and kidnapping of vehicle occupants may occur. There have also been reports of violence at some borders. Pakistani militias fired on Afghan civilians at the Torkham border crossing in late August, and fighting between the Pakistani army and Pakistan Taliban (TTP) fighters in Afghanistan reportedly occurred along the border with Bajaur.

Disruptions to business operations, public transport, and aid agencies are possible nationwide. Goods shortages have reportedly occurred due to business closures, shipping delays, or looting and could continue nationwide. Prices of essential commodities have risen amid shortages, especially in Kabul, possibly prompting panic buying. Banks have begun to reopen, but cash shortages and long lines are likely near available branches as civilians attempt to withdraw money. Consular services may be unavailable, particularly outside of Kabul. Many Western embassies have either drastically drawn down or temporarily suspended their presence in Kabul. Other countries, including China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran, continue to operate their diplomatic missions in the capital.

Advice

Defer all nonessential travel to Afghanistan until the security situation stabilizes. Foreign nationals should strongly consider exiting the country, if possible. Maintain close contact with your diplomatic representation. Do not depart for the airport until flight service is confirmed. Check the status of routes and airport before departure. Maintain a low public profile and dress conservatively.

Follow official directives. Exercise caution and avoid any protests. Defer travel to sites with ongoing security operations; if operating in such an area, remain sheltered in a secure indoor location, away from windows. Confirm business appointments, transport reservations, road status, and deliveries in advance. Ensure contingency plans account for business and transport disruptions.

Resources

Afghanistan Civil Aviation Authority NOTAM
Ministry of Interior Affairs
Ministry of Defence