Belarus: Opposition protests possible in Minsk, elsewhere Aug. 9 to mark the anniversary of controversial election

Event

Anti-government activists could hold protests in urban centers Aug. 9 to mark the anniversary of the 2020 presidential election. Specific protests have not been announced, though likely locations based on previous protests include the Minsk Hero City Obelisk, Independence Square, Freedom Square, and Victors Avenue. Potential participation is currently unclear; despite attempts by opposition leaders to reinvigorate the protest campaign, attendance at related demonstrations has abated in recent months.

Authorities could deploy additional security personnel in central Minsk and other major cities to deter potential protests. The presence of large crowds and associated security measures would likely prompt transport disruptions near any protest demonstrations. Riot police have used tear gas, rubber bullets, flash grenades, and warning shots using live rounds to disperse demonstrators at previous actions. Mass arrests and clashes are likely at any opposition protests; reports suggest security forces may have deliberately targeted journalists and bystanders in the past. Even if not targeted, bystanders would face a significant threat of physical harm near any violence.

Context

The 2020 presidential election returned over 80-percent of the vote for incumbent Alexander Lukashenko, prompting opposition activists to denounce the vote as rigged. Anti-government protests have since taken place in urban centers nationwide, though their frequency, size, and intensity have significantly dropped through 2021, partly as a result of a significant security force crackdown on opposition activity, as well as protest fatigue among activists. Sporadic actions are likely to continue in the coming months. In addition, members of the Belarusian diaspora in neighboring countries, particularly Poland and Lithuania, could hold solidarity protests in the coming weeks.

Advice

Exercise caution in urban centers, particularly Minsk, Aug. 9 and avoid any protests due to the potential for violence. Heed instructions from security services and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Do not display any sign of political affiliation and be discreet when discussing the regime, including on social media. Do not take photographs of protests, members of security forces, or military traffic.