16 Aug 2021 | 09:36 AM UTC
Gulf of Mexico: TS Fred tracking northwards early Aug. 16; landfall forecast near Panama City, Florida, US, late Aug. 16 /update 12
TS Fred tracking north in the Gulf of Mexico early Aug. 16; landfall forecast near Panama City, Fla., US late Aug. 16.
Event
Tropical Storm Fred continues to track north in the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida coast early Aug. 16. As of 04:00 CDT Aug. 15, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 255 km (160 miles) south of Panama City, Florida, US. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen slightly and turn to track north-northeastwards before making landfall as a tropical storm near Panama City, Florida, late Aug. 16. The system will subsequently weaken rapidly as it tracks north-northeastward across Alabama and northwestern Georgia, likely dissipating in eastern Tennessee by early Aug. 18. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
Government Advisories
As of 04:00 CDT Aug. 16, the following warnings and watches are in effect:
Tropical Storm Warning: Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla-Jefferson county line
Storm Surge Warning: Florida coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown
Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.
Hazardous Conditions
The storm will likely bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas in Florida, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina through at least Aug. 17. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Forecast models indicate the system will likely bring rainfall totaling 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) to parts of southern and central Florida through Aug. 16. 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) of rainfall is likely across the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle, while across southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia and the western Carolinas, 10-18 cm (4-7 inches) of rainfall can be expected through Aug. 17. Through Aug. 18, 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rain is forecast for portions of the Mid-Atlantic States. Torrential precipitation could trigger flash floods and mudslides.
Prolonged sea swells and storm surge generated by the system may result in coastal flooding. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments. The storm surge is forecast to raise water levels by 1-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River in Florida; 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) from Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown, Florida; and 0.3-1 meter (1-3 feet) from the Alabama-Florida border to Indian Pass, as well as from Yankeetown to Aripeka. In addition to the heavy rain, flooding, and storm surge, the storm could produce damaging wind gusts, resulting in power outages due to fallen trees and toppled utility lines.
Tornadoes may be possible across parts of the Florida west coast and Panhandle through early Aug. 16. Through late Aug. 16, tornadoes are also possible from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama.
Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions in areas impacted by the system. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.
Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse conditions. Heed all evacuation orders. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming days.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
