Myanmar: Additional fighting between military and armed groups likely in Karen State through at least late August

Event

Additional clashes between the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) and ethnic armed groups are likely in Karen State through at least late August. Clashes between security forces and several groups, such as the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and Karen National Union (KNU), have occurred in the Mudaw District of Hpapun Township through early August. Fighting is also ongoing due to the construction of a Tatmadaw Border Guard Force (BGF) camp in Hpapun. Dozens of security personnel have reportedly been killed. The clashes have displaced hundreds of residents in affected areas; villagers from Ma Htaw in Dwe Lo Township fled the area after BGF warnings. Additional skirmishes are likely.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain heightened security, including checkpoints and road closures, in the affected areas in the coming days. Militant groups will probably also conduct increased patrols in the region. Violence is likely to affect transport in the area, especially roads connecting townships.

Context

Multiple ethnic armed groups including the KNU, openly opposed the Feb. 1 military coup and are continuing operations against the Myanmar government. Further armed confrontations are likely as the decades-long conflict remains entrenched due to multiple factors, including historical ethnic feuds, competition over natural resources, demands for greater autonomy from a Bamar-dominated central government, as well as the ethnic armed groups' opposition to the military coup.

Advice

Defer nonessential travel to the affected areas until tensions subside and renewed fighting becomes less likely. Reach out to trusted local contacts to determine security conditions, as reporting is often delayed. Carry proper identification documents to present at security checks and heed all instructions from security personnel; remain cooperative if stopped for inspections. If operating in the affected region, maintain contact with your diplomatic mission.