South China Sea: Tropical Storm Lupit is tracking east-northeastward in the South China Sea Aug. 4 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Lupit is tracking east-northeastward in the South China Sea Aug. 4. As of 11:00 CST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 181 km (113 miles) southeast of Hong Kong. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen further as it turns northeastward through Aug. 5 and makes landfall southwest of Xiamen, Fujian Province, China, late Aug. 5 as a tropical storm. Lupit will likely continue in its northeasterly trajectory and track along the coastal areas of southeastern mainland China before exiting into the East China Sea near Fuzhou, Fujian Province, early Aug. 7. The storm is forecast to continue tracking northeasterly in the East China Sea and strengthen into a tropical storm through early Aug. 9 as it approaches Japan's Ryukyu Archipelago. Some uncertainty remains in the system's track and intensity forecast, and changes may occur over the coming days.

Government Advisories

As of Aug. 4, Hong Kong officials maintain Standby Signal No. 1 and continue to warn of heavy rains and strong winds over the territory. However, the impacts are unlikely to be severe. The Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau also maintains Signal No. 1 and has warned of possible flooding due to heavy rain and strong winds. The China Meteorological Administration has issued a blue typhoon warning (lowest level on a four-tier scale) indicating strong winds over central and eastern Guangdong and southern Fujian provinces, as well as heavy rains of 10-16 cm (4-6 inches) in central and southern Guangdong, central and eastern Fujian, northeastern Hainan Island, and southern Zhejiang. The Japan Meteorological Agency has warned of Tropical Storm Lupit's possible approach to Okinawa Prefecture, which would bring strong winds and large waves of up to 4 m (13 feet) as well as heavy rains of up to 12 cm (4.5 inches) in Okinawa Prefecture. Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm may bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas of southeastern mainland China, northeastern Taiwan, and the Ryukyu Archipelago over the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system approaches land. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in the low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks. Keep any necessary medications in a waterproof container.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
China Meteorological Administration
Hong Kong Observatory
Japan Meteorological Agency
Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau