Tunisia: Heightened security measures and political uncertainty to persist through August; nightly curfew amended as of Aug. 19 /update 4

Event

Political uncertainty and heightened security measures are likely to persist in Tunisia through at least August as President Kais Saied has yet to appoint a new prime minister. Saied amended the country's nightly curfew following his decision to dismiss the prime minister, suspend the country's Parliament, and strip lawmakers of legislative immunity. The existing 22:00-05:00 curfew will be replaced by a nightly 23:59-05:00 curfew as of Aug. 19. The curfew was introduced following disruptive protests July 25 against the Ennahda party, the largest political party in Tunisia, for its perceived poor handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The president also shut down public agencies and institutions July 27-28 and banned travel between cities. Gatherings of more than three people also remain banned. The measures come amid heightened security measures and the possibility of further demonstrations by political groups and organizations.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain heightened security measures to monitor any future large gatherings and protests. Gatherings are likely in urban centers, particularly in Tunis near major government buildings. Clashes are possible if demonstrators are overly disruptive or if they ignore police orders to disperse. Further restrictions on movement may be implemented in the coming days.

Context

Tunisia has a recent history of political instability. It has had several governments since the Arab Spring began in 2011. President Saied, who operates sans a political party, was elected in 2019. Since assuming office, the president has had two prime ministers with whom he has competed for political power. During his term, Saied has attempted to expand the powers of the presidency, bringing him into conflict with his opponents, most recently with the prime minister and the Speaker of the Parliament, Rachid Ghannouchi of the Ennahada party.

Saied has justified his suspension of the Parliament and dismissal of the government by citing Article 80 of the Constitution, which grants the president emergency powers in the event of an “imminent threat.” His opponents have called the move a coup and a violation of the Constitution. Hundreds of Ennahda political party supporters gathered near the country's Parliament July 26 to protest Saied's recent decision. Protesters claim that Saied's move poses a threat to Tunisian democracy. Despite this, Saied appears to have received popular backing, including from the Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT), to which more than one million Tunisians belong.

However, the public response could change if the president fails to appoint a new prime minister in the coming days. The appointment of a qualified and independent prime minister will signal to the public that the president intends to form a government that can deliver on its promises and bring about serious economic reforms. If the president fails to enact reforms, his move to seize power will likely be deemed a coup, significantly undermining his legitimacy within Tunisia and weakening the country’s democratic gains.

Advice

Plan for increased security measures and heed the advice of security personnel. Confirm the availability of transport and allow additional time to reach destinations. Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for violence. Exercise caution near known or likely protest locations. Monitor local media for protest activity, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.