Western Pacific: TS Lupit tracking northeastwards across northern Taiwan Aug. 7 /update 7

Event

Tropical Storm Lupit has made landfall near Hsinchu City and is tracking northeastward over northern Taiwan Aug. 7. As of 08:00 CST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 93 km (58 miles) southwest of Taipei. Forecast models indicate the system will maintain its strength during its passage over the island, entering the East China Sea later the same day. Lupit will intensify slightly over the East China Sea as it tracks northeastward toward southern Japan; a subsequent landfall is likely near Ichikikushikino in Kagoshima Prefecture early Aug. 9. Following landfall, the system will maintain its intensity as it tracks northeastward across most of Japan, exiting into the North Pacific Ocean Aug. 10. Some uncertainty remains in the system's track and intensity forecast, and changes may occur over the coming days.

Taiwanese officials have closed schools and offices in various locations in southern Taiwan, including Heping District in Taichung City; Chiayi, Kaohsiung, and Tainan cities; and Chiayi and Pingtung counties, Aug. 7 due to the storm.

Government Advisories
As of early Aug. 7, the following warnings and alerts are in effect:

• China Meteorological Administration: Blue (lowest level on a four-tier scale) rain warning for eastern Fujian Province; additional rainfall of up to 5 cm (2 inches) is possible. Warnings for landslides and flooding are also in place for far eastern Fujian Province and southeastern Zhejiang Province.

• Taiwan Central Weather Bureau: An extreme torrential rain advisory is in effect for Kaohsiung City, as well as for the mountainous areas of Chiayi, Pingtung, and Nantou counties. A torrential rain advisory is in effect in Tainan City and Miaoli County and the mountain areas of Taichung City and Yunlin County. An extremely heavy rain advisory is in effect for Hengchun Peninsula; Lanyu and Ludao Islands; Changhua, Hsinchu, Nantou, Penghu, Pingtung, Taitung, and Yunlin counties; Chiayi and Taichung Cities; and Hualien County Mountain Area. A heavy rain advisory is in place in Keelung North Coast; Hsinchu, New Taipei, Taipei, and Taoyuan cities; Hsinchu County and Yilan County Mountain Area.

Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm may bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas of southeastern mainland China and most of Taiwan over the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in the low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the high potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
China Meteorological Administration (Chinese)
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau