Philippines: Tropical Storm Conson tracking west-northwestward over Eastern Visayas Sept. 7 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Conson (known in the Philippines as Jolina) is tracking west-northwestward over the Philippines' Eastern Visayas Region Sept. 7. As of 02:00 PHT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 544 km (338 miles) southeast of Manila, Philippines. Forecast models indicate the system will slightly strengthen into a typhoon over the coming hours as it tracks northwestward over the Philippines' inner seas; however, interaction with land will prevent significant development. Conson will likely track across Bicol Region Sept. 7 before making landfall as a tropical storm near San Francisco, Calabarzon Region, early Sept. 8. The storm is subsequently forecast to maintain tropical storm-force winds as it tracks northwestward along the southern coast of Calabarzon Region and then transits southern parts of the National Capital Region, making a close approach to Manila, late Sept. 8 or early Sept. 9. Conson will make another landfall near Balanga, Central Luzon Region, early Sept. 9 before exiting into the South China Sea later that day. The system is forecast to intensify again into a typhoon while in the South China Sea and make landfall in Hainan Province, China, early Sept. 12. The storm's track and intensity forecast remain somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

Government Advisories
As of early Sept. 7, officials in the Philippines forecast that heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Conson will affect Eastern Visayas Region and Bicol Region's Sorsogon and Masbate provinces through early Sept. 8. Moderate-to-heavy rainfall is likely over the same period in southern Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, and other parts of Bicol Region and the Visayas. Authorities have issued tropical cyclone wind signals for multiple areas, notably including a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 3 (i.e., indicating destructive typhoon-force winds) for eastern Masbate Province, including Ticao Island, in Bicol Region, as well as for the extreme western portion of Northern Samar Province, the northern portion of Biliran Province, and the northern and central portions of Samar Province in Eastern Visayas Region.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations cannot be discounted if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm may bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas of the central and northern Philippines over the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments. Storm surge of up to 0.5-1 meter (2-3 feet) is possible for coastal areas of Eastern Samar, Samar, and Masbate provinces through early Sept. 8.

Transport
In addition to the immediate threat to personal safety, inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in the low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to the presence of incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or typhoon conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration