Philippine Sea: TS Kompasu tracking west-northwestward over Philippine Sea early Oct. 11; landfall forecast in northern Philippines /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Kompasu is tracking west-northwestward over the Philippine Sea early Oct. 11. As of 11:00 PHT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 552 km (343 miles) northeast of Manila, Philippines. Forecast models indicate the system will track west as it strengthens slightly and makes landfall over Camiguin and Fuga islands, Cagayan Province, Philippines, the evening of Oct. 11, before entering the South China Sea later the same day. Kompasu will likely strengthen into a typhoon by late Oct. 12 as it tracks west across the South China Sea. The system is forecast to make landfall as a typhoon over southern Hainan Province, China, the afternoon of Oct. 13; a subsequent landfall as a tropical storm is likely over Ha Tinh Province, Vietnam, the afternoon of Oct. 14. Kompasu will probably dissipate over far northwestern Udon Thani Province, Thailand, early Oct. 16. The storm's track and intensity forecast remain somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

Government Advisories
Philippine officials have issued a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 over Abra, Apayao, Batanes, Cagayan, northern Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Kalinga, and Mountain Province in Luzon, while a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1 is in effect for Aurora, northern Bataan, Benguet, Bulacan, Ifugao, the rest of Isabela, La Union, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Pampanga, Pangasinan, Pampanga, northern Quezon, Quirino, Tarlac, and Zambales provinces in Luzon.

Authorities have also warned of moderate to heavy rain over the Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, and Batanes and Cagayan provinces, including the Babuyan Islands. Light to moderate rain is forecast over Central Luzon and the rest of the Cagayan Valley regions. Orange (second-lowest level on a four-tier scale) Flood Advisories are in place for rivers and their tributaries in Cagayan and Isabela provinces in the Cagayan Valley Region, most of Cordillera Administrative Region, and Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan provinces in the Ilocos Region.

Officials in Taiwan have issued Extremely Heavy Rain Advisories (second-lowest level on a four-tier scale) for Hualien and Yilan counties while Heavy Rain Advisories (lowest level on a four-tier scale) are in place for the rest of northern and eastern Taiwan.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards. The possibility of localized evacuations remains possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Hazardous Conditions
The storm may bring heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas to coastal areas of northern Philippines, far southern China, and central and northern Vietnam in the coming days. Sustained heavy rainfall in the northern Philippines, Taiwan, most of Vietnam, far southern China, Laos, northern Thailand, and northern Cambodia could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near streams, creeks, rivers, and urban areas with inadequate stormwater drainage systems.

Sites located downstream of large reservoirs could experience flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides are possible in steeply sloped terrains. Flooding could isolate some communities for several days. Prolonged swells and storm surge generated by the system will likely result in coastal flooding as the system approaches land. Persistent onshore flow could make it difficult for the surge to recede and for water levels to decrease in coastal river catchments.

Transport
Inclement weather associated with the storm could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Areal flooding in urban locations could also result in severe traffic congestion, while strong winds will pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Heavy rain and low visibility may trigger flight disruptions at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions improve. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may exacerbate residual disruptions.

Health
Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. The threat of these disease outbreaks is usually elevated in low-income or underdeveloped areas of major urban centers due to the presence of incomplete or open sewer lines. The latent threat of waterborne contaminants from inundated industrial sites cannot be discounted; exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Cambodia Department of Meteorology
China Meteorological Administration
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
Thai Meteorological Department
Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (Vietnamese)