Western Sahara: Moroccan forces allegedly conduct cross-territory shelling, Nov. 3, killing three Algerian nationals

Event

Algeria has accused Morocco of killing three of its nationals in Western Sahara, Nov. 3. The details of the event remain unclear but the three Algerians were reportedly killed by Moroccan shelling of Western Sahara territory that remains under the control of the Frente Popular de Liberacion de Saguia el Hamra y Rio de Oro (Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Rio de Oro, Polisario Front). Algerian authorities have stated that the Algerian citizens were traveling between Nouakchott, Mauritania and Ouargla, Algeria when the shelling occurred.

Heightened security will likely continue in the western regions of Western Sahara through at least early November. Spates of civil unrest, retaliatory attacks, and localized supply chain disruptions are possible over this period.

Context

Western Sahara is a former Spanish protectorate. Morocco, which has controlled the region since 1975, was engaged in armed conflict with the Polisario Front until 1991 when the UN brokered a ceasefire. Morocco maintains that Western Sahara is an integral part of its territory; while it has offered autonomy, the government in Rabat is determined to retain sovereignty over the disputed territory. Morocco controls nearly 80 percent of Western Sahara, while the self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) controls the remainder. Meanwhile, the SADR, which operates a government-in-exile in Algeria's Tindouf Province and receives support from Algiers, is committed to securing independence from Morocco and creating a sovereign country in the territory.

Following the 1991 ceasefire and as part of the agreement between Morocco and the SADR, the UN established a peacekeeping mission - the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) - to oversee the armistice and to hold a plebiscite in which the people of Western Sahara would vote for either integration with Morocco or self-determination. The referendum has yet to materialize largely due to disagreements over who is eligible to vote within the territory.

The shelling incident transpires amid heightened tensions between Rabat and Algiers. Algerian authorities closed its airspace to all Moroccan civil and military aircraft in late September. Algeria notably severed diplomatic relations with Morocco in late August after accusing purported terrorist groups, including one allegedly backed by Rabat, of starting wildfires in the Kabylie Region, killing at least 90 people. Disagreement over the status of Western Sahara, mutual accusations of supporting militant groups, and border disputes have severed ties between Algeria and Morocco for decades.

Advice

If operating in Western Sahara, exercise extreme caution until the situation stabilizes. Strictly keep away from areas near the buffer zone. Avoid all military installations, troop convoys, and concentrations of security forces, as these may be targeted for attack by the Polisario Front. Heed the instructions of local authorities, especially with regard to any special security zones or military closure areas that may be declared during any future operations. Avoid any protests that may materialize in any part of Morocco or Western Sahara.