Russia: US Embassy in Kyiv issues security alert regarding Russian military activity on Ukraine's borders as of Nov. 25 /update 2

Event

The US Embassy in Kyiv has issued a security alert advising citizens of unusual Russian military activity near Ukraine's borders, as of Nov. 25. The alert reiterated the US travel advisory to avoid Crimea and Ukraine's southeastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions. US and Ukrainian officials continue to report Russian troop movements and deployments in western regions of Russia bordering Ukraine and in the Black Sea and in Crimea, which Russian annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

The most significant concentration of men and military equipment has been reported in Yelnya, Smolensk Oblast, where around 114,000 troops are reportedly deployed. In recent days, deployments have continued, most notably to Crimea and in the Voronezh Oblast; however, Russia has increased operational security and now conducts many transfers at night, increasing the difficulty of assessments. Large troop movements were previously reported in the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov-on-Don, and Voronezh oblasts, which all border Ukraine. Additionally, the Ukrainian military has repeatedly stated that an unknown number of Russian troops are permanently stationed in areas bordering Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which are partly under the control of pro-Russia separatist militants. Some media reports indicate Russia has mobilized reservist troops; however, this would indicate a potential escalation and remains unconfirmed.

Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruption on regional highways and arterial rail lines. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near any military sites in Russia and near the border with Ukraine and in areas where additional military units are deployed.

Context

Tensions are currently heightened between Moscow and various Western governments and organizations, including the US, the EU, and NATO. Tensions are also elevated with Ukraine over the conflict in the Donbas and the transit of Russian gas through the country.

While Moscow previously dismissed accusations that the troop movements are belligerent, Russian President Vladimir Putin, on Nov. 18, raised the issue of obtaining long-term security guarantees from the West to ensure that Russia's "red lines" on Ukraine and NATO activity in the region are respected. NATO exercises featuring approximately 1,500 troops are ongoing in Latvia, which borders Russia, until Dec. 4. Putin also highlighted the increased presence of US and NATO naval vessels in the Black Sea. Additionally, Moscow has expressed concern about increasing arms sales from the US to Ukraine in relation to the conflict in the Donbas. While the Russian president did not explicitly connect increased NATO activity to the recent movements of Russian troops, by highlighting these issues along with the sale of US weaponry to Ukraine, he may be indicating the actions that Russia finds particularly troubling on its borders. However, Russia's motivation for the troop movements remains unclear.

While Russia's forces are unlikely to threaten neighboring countries, regional governments and NATO allies will closely monitor the situation and are likely to voice concern over any maneuvers that could be interpreted as belligerent. Russia could continue to use such deployments to raise or ease tensions along its western border in reaction to regional developments in the coming months. Strong rhetoric is possible, but there is unlikely to be any military escalation in the immediate term.

Advice

Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces.