Indian Ocean: Typhoon Batsirai tracking westwards in the Indian Ocean early Jan. 31 /update 2

Event

Typhoon Batsirai is tracking westwards in the Indian Ocean early Jan. 31. As of 07:00 MUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 863 km (536 miles) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Forecast models indicate the system will maintain its strength as it passes well north of Rodrigues Island, Mauritius, Jan. 31. The storm is forecast to gradually turn to track southwestwards through Feb. 1 and make a close approach as a typhoon to the main island of Mauritius early Feb. 2 and Reunion early Feb. 3. After passing north of the islands, the storm is forecast to continue tracking southwestwards towards the eastern coast of Madagascar through Feb. 5. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Jan. 31, the Mauritius Meteorological Services has issued a Class 1 cyclone warning for Rodrigues. The public is advised to take preliminary precautions. Moderate rain with isolated thunderstorms and wave heights of around 5 meters (16 feet) are forecast.

The Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has warned residents between Analanjirofo and Taolagnaro to closely monitor the system. The weather is forecast to remain dry until Feb. 2. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports, such as Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU) and Sir Gaetan Duval Airport (RRG), and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology (French)
Meteo France Reunion (French)