Madagascar: Tropical Depression Gamane tracking southeastward over Sofia Region as of early March 29 /update 6

Tropical Depression Gamane has weakened into a zone of disturbed weather and is tracking southeastward over the Sofia Region early March 29, having made landfall as a tropical cyclone in Vohemar District, Sava Region, early March 27. As of 00:01 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 502 km (312 miles) north of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Forecast models indicate the system will continue tracking southeastwards, weaken further, and dissipate over far eastern Sofia Region over the coming hours. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early March 29, Meteo Madagascar has rescinded all cyclone alerts but is maintaining red heavy rainfall alerts for the Diane, Sava, and Analanjirofo regions, and Toamasina and Brickaville districts in the Atsinanana Region. Green heavy rainfall warnings are in place across Alaotra-Mangoro Region and Analalava, Antsohihy, Bealanana, Befandriana Avaratra districts in Sofia Region, Mandritsara District in Mandritsara Region, Antanambao Manampotsy, Marolambo, Mahanoro, and Vatomandry districts in Atsinanana Region. Red strong wind and heavy swell warnings are in place for much of Madagascar's northeastern coastline. Severe weather is ongoing across much of northern and northeastern Madagascar and the heavy rainfall is expected to persist through at least March 29.

Reports indicate flooding is affecting parts of Diana, Sava, Atsinanana, and Analanjirofo regions, including the towns of Antalaha, Sambava, and Vohemar. Authorities have confirmed 14 fatalities and three injuries, with three other people still missing. Approximately 36,000 people have been affected, with more than 18,500 people evacuated. Official shave established 68 emergency shelters. Floodwaters have inundated around 6,600 homes in the region, with 617 houses severely damaged. Floods have affected around 698 hectares (1,725 acres) of land. Several roads across northern Madagascar are impassable, including parts of national roads 5 and 6. Damage assessments may take some time due to the ongoing severe weather associated with Gamane.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger additional flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.