Kazakhstan: Authorities declare nationwide state of emergency effective until at least Jan. 19 following widespread protests, clashes /update 5

Event

Kazakhstani authorities have declared a nationwide state of emergency effective until at least Jan. 19 amid continued unrest across the country, expanding a previous state of emergency implemented in Almaty, Almaty Region, Mangystau Region, and Nur-Sultan. Under the expanded, nationwide state of emergency, a nightly curfew is in effect 23:00-07:00, freedom of movement is restricted, and mass gatherings are prohibited.

In response to the unrest, President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev has notably requested assistance in restoring order from member countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), an international military alliance consisting of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan; the CSTO has reportedly agreed to deploy a peacekeeping force to Kazakhstan for a limited period to stabilize the country.

Authorities reportedly retook control of Almaty International Airport (ALA) early Jan. 6 after demonstrators had stormed the facility Jan. 5; lingering flight disruptions, including reductions in flight operations and service, are nonetheless likely to continue at ALA over the coming hours. ALA and Aktau International Airport (SCO) were forced to suspend operations due to disruptive protest activity Jan. 5. Additional airports in Kazakhstan may be affected by unrest in the coming days.

Internet access has been partially restored in Kazakhstan following a nationwide blackout Jan. 5; however, the Telegram mobile messaging application continues to experience outages. Further disruptions to internet and other telecommunications are likely over the short term, especially during periods of elevated protest activity and associated clashes between activists and security forces.

The most significant protests and associated clashes have been reported in Almaty, particularly around Republic Square, with other noteworthy protests reported in Nur-Sultan, Aktau, Zhanaozen, Kostanay, Atyrau, Shymkent, Taraz, Aktobe, and Oral. Protests are typically focused around government facilities, such as local Akimats (i.e., regional government buildings), and in central squares; however, protesters have also reportedly targeted media organization headquarters, among other buildings. Riot police have fired tear gas, stun grenades, water cannons, and rubber bullets during clashes with protesters; while no civilian casualty figures have been released, the clashes have left at least eight police officers and national guard members dead and more than 300 others wounded. US officials have postponed services and appointments at Embassy Nur-Sultan and Consulate General Almaty amid the unrest, with the latter scheduled to remain closed to visitors Jan. 6.

Protesters in Almaty notably broke through security cordons into the regional government building and the nearby presidential residence Jan. 5, setting both ablaze and causing significant damage. Protests and clashes have also been reported in other areas of the city. Unconfirmed reports indicate that protesters have seized firearms and riot-control vehicles from security forces and have used them against police.

Large security force deployments are likely in all protest-affected locations. Police will almost certainly attempt to forcibly disperse any demonstrations or other gatherings that materialize; security services have carried out mass detentions in Oral and could do so in additional cities. Additional protests, clashes, and transport and telecommunications disruptions are likely in major cities over the coming days.

Context

The initial cause of the unrest was the recent lifting of price caps on liquified petroleum gas (LPG), which caused a doubling of LPG prices. Thousands of people denounced the price hikes in Zhanaozen Jan. 2, with related protests then spreading to other parts of the country. In recent days, the animating purpose of the protests has apparently shifted beyond activists' initial denunciation of fuel prices. While the protests do not have a singular leader or set of demands, the demonstrators' focus has seemingly widened to encompass other larger issues, including a perceived need to tackle government corruption, low wages, and unemployment, as well as undertake liberalizing reforms akin to those implemented in other former satellite states of the Soviet Union.

In response to the widespread protest activity, President Toqayev has ousted former President Nursultan Nazarbayev from his position as head of the country's National Security Council and has taken the position himself, in addition to accepting the resignation of the cabinet led by Prime Minister Askar Mamin and directing the new acting cabinet to reinstitute price caps on liquified petroleum gas (LPG).

However, these concessions offered by the government have so far not appeased activists, and protests are likely to continue in several cities over the coming days. Authorities will deploy large numbers of security forces to all affected locations to suppress protest activity; the likely use of significant force against protesters could further inflame activists. However, the lack of a political movement leading the protests means it is unclear whether the unrest will continue beyond the coming days.

Advice

Exercise caution if operating in Kazakhstan and adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities. Prepare for movement restrictions, telecommunications disruptions, and other heightened security measures until at least Jan. 19. Avoid all demonstrations and likely protest sites in Almaty and other protest-affected cities. Consider deferring nonessential travel to the country until the situation has stabilized. Confirm flight status if scheduled to travel via Kazakhstani airports; do not check out of accommodations unless onward travel is confirmed. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.