Kazakhstan: Authorities lift nationwide state of emergency Jan. 19 /update 11

Event

Kazakhstan has lifted a nationwide state of emergency and associated curfew Jan. 19. The emergency regime was introduced Jan. 5 amid widespread violent protests that took place in multiple urban centers. The official terrorist threat level for Almaty city remains at "Critical Red." Security operations to apprehend suspected agitators have largely concluded in all parts of the country except Almaty and the wider Almaty Region, where additional police and military personnel remain deployed. Heightened security has also been reported in Nur-Sultan.

Opposition groups have called for protests via social media; however, given the tight security, the potential for further large protests and associated violence remains low. Security remains tight in central areas of Almaty and urban centers in the Almaty Region, as well as in central Nur-Sultan, particularly near government buildings and central squares. Security forces continue to conduct targeted operations in Almaty and Taldykurgan Jan. 19; the "Critical Red" threat level empowers security forces to search individuals and vehicles, as well as restrict their movement. Associated road closures will likely prompt localized disruptions. Disruptions prompted by security measures also remain likely near train stations and airports. The terrorist threat level in North Kazakhstan Region remains "Yellow," indicating a moderate threat, until Jan. 26. Security checkpoints will likely remain on the outskirts of Petropavlovsk and regional urban centers over the coming days.

All airports, including Almaty International Airport (ALA), have reopened to domestic and international flights; flight services remain reduced as major carriers reschedule flights. Long-distance rail services are operating normally nationwide. Several airlines are yet to resume flights to Kazakhstan despite the improved security situation, including Aeroflot (SU) and Lufthansa (LH). However, Aeroflot previously indicated ticket sales to destinations within the country would resume Jan. 20.

The withdrawal of a contingent of approximately 2,500 foreign troops from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) began Jan. 13; their departure is scheduled to take place over 10 days.

Context

Kazakhstan's Ministry of Internal Affairs has confirmed that 255 people were killed in the unrest and over 8,000 individuals were arrested. The worst violence was reported in Almaty, where 103 fatalities occurred. Demonstrations began in Zhanaozen Jan. 2 in reaction to a major hike in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices. The wave of unrest escalated through Jan. 6, with protests and associated clashes occurring in Aktau, Aktobe, Almaty, Atyrau, Kostanay, Nur-Sultan, Oral, Shymkent, Taraz, Taldykorgan, and Zhanaozen. Security personnel were quick to use force, including live ammunition and tear gas, to disperse crowds. The widespread, largely spontaneous wave of unrest has subsided sharply following the deployment of security forces in urban centers nationwide.

President Toqayev made several concessions in an effort to head off future demonstrations. He has ousted former President Nursultan Nazarbayev from his position as head of the country's National Security Committee and arrested key Nazarbayev appointees in the security sector. Toqayev has also accepted the cabinet's resignation led by former Prime Minister Askar Mamin and directed the new acting cabinet to reinstitute price caps on LPG and a moratorium on government pay rises for senior officials.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to the country until the situation has fully stabilized. Exercise caution if operating in Kazakhstan and adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities. Prepare for movement restrictions, telecommunications disruptions, and other heightened security measures until at least Jan. 19. Avoid all demonstrations and likely protest sites in Almaty and other protest-affected cities. Confirm flight status if scheduled to travel via Kazakh airports; do not check out of accommodations unless onward travel is confirmed. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.