Kazakhstan: Further protests, clashes reported in Almaty Jan. 6 /update 6

Event

Reports indicate that protesters and security forces clashed during demonstrations in Republic Square (also known as Independence or New Square) in Almaty, early Jan. 6, causing at least ten casualties. Internet services disruptions are also ongoing. Sources suggest heavy deployment of security forces in the city. Additionally, Air Arabia (G9), Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL), and Flydubai (AZ) have announced the cancellation of flights to Almaty. Reports indicate the National Bank of Kazakhstan has suspended nationwide banking operations as of Jan. 6. Looting has also occurred during the protests. The situation is fluid and subject to change.

Kazakhstani authorities declared a nationwide state of emergency until at least Jan. 19 amid continued unrest across the country. A nightly 23:00-07:00 curfew is in effect, freedom of movement is restricted, and mass gatherings remain prohibited.

In response to the unrest, President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev has requested assistance in restoring order from member countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), an international military alliance consisting of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan; the CSTO has reportedly agreed to deploy a peacekeeping force to Kazakhstan for a limited period to stabilize the country.

Authorities reportedly retook control of Almaty International Airport (ALA) early Jan. 6 after demonstrators stormed the facility Jan. 5; lingering flight disruptions, including reductions in flight operations and service, are nonetheless likely to continue at ALA over the coming hours. ALA and Aktau International Airport (SCO) were forced to temporarily suspend operations due to disruptive protest activity Jan. 5. Additional airports in Kazakhstan may be affected by unrest in the coming days.

A nationwide internet blackout took place Jan. 5. Further disruptions to the internet and other telecommunications are likely over the short term, especially during periods of elevated protest activity and associated clashes between activists and security forces.

The most significant protests and associated clashes have been reported in Almaty, particularly around Republic Square, with other noteworthy protests reported in Nur-Sultan, Aktau, Zhanaozen, Kostanay, Atyrau, Shymkent, Taraz, Aktobe, and Oral. Protests are typically focused around government facilities, such as local Akimats (regional government buildings), and in central squares; however, protesters have also reportedly targeted media organization headquarters, among other buildings. Riot police have fired tear gas, stun grenades, water cannons, and rubber bullets during clashes with protesters; while no civilian casualty figures have been released, the clashes have left at least eight police officers and national guard members dead and more than 300 others wounded. US officials have postponed services and appointments at the embassy Nur-Sultan and the consulate general in Almaty amid the unrest, with the latter scheduled to remain closed to visitors Jan. 6.

Protesters in Almaty notably broke through security cordons into the regional government building and the nearby presidential residence Jan. 5, setting both ablaze and causing significant damage. Protests and clashes have also been reported in other areas of the city. Unconfirmed reports indicate that protesters seized firearms and riot-control vehicles from security forces and have used them against police.

Large security force deployments are likely in all protest-affected locations. Police will almost certainly attempt to forcibly disperse any demonstrations or other gatherings that materialize; security services have carried out mass detentions in Oral and could do so in additional cities. Additional protests, clashes, and transport and telecommunications disruptions are likely in major cities over the coming days.

Context

The initial cause of the unrest was the recent lifting of price caps on liquified petroleum gas (LPG), which caused a doubling of LPG prices. Thousands of people denounced the price hikes in Zhanaozen Jan. 2, with related protests then spreading to other parts of the country. In recent days, the animating purpose of the protests has apparently shifted beyond activists' initial denunciation of fuel prices. While the protests do not have a singular leader or set of demands, the demonstrators' focus has seemingly widened to encompass other larger issues, including a perceived need to tackle government corruption, low wages, and unemployment, as well as undertake liberalizing reforms akin to those implemented in other former satellite states of the Soviet Union.

In response to the widespread protest activity, President Toqayev has ousted former President Nursultan Nazarbayev from his position as head of the country's National Security Council and has taken the position himself, in addition to accepting the resignation of the cabinet led by Prime Minister Askar Mamin and directing the new acting cabinet to reinstitute price caps on LPG.

However, these concessions offered by the government have so far not appeased activists, and protests are likely to continue in several cities over the coming days. Authorities will deploy large numbers of security forces to all affected locations to suppress protest activity; the likely use of significant force against protesters could further inflame activists. However, the lack of a political movement leading the protests means it is unclear whether the unrest will continue beyond the coming days.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to the country until the situation has stabilized. Exercise caution if operating in Kazakhstan and adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities. Prepare for movement restrictions, telecommunications disruptions, and other heightened security measures until at least Jan. 19. Avoid all demonstrations and likely protest sites in Almaty and other protest-affected cities. Confirm flight status if scheduled to travel via Kazakhstani airports; do not check out of accommodations unless onward travel is confirmed. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.