Kazakhstan: Further unrest, extremely tight security likely nationwide through at least mid-January following recent violent protests /update 8

Event

The government of Kazakhstan will almost certainly keep an exceptionally heavy security presence deployed through at least mid-January in response to a recent series of violent protests that erupted in many cities across the country. Authorities have declared a nationwide state of emergency, which will remain in force through at least Jan. 19.

Demonstrations began in Zhanaozen Jan. 2 in reaction to a major hike in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices before spreading to other locations across the country and expanding to encompass broader issues, such as government corruption, low wages, and unemployment. The wave of unrest escalated through Jan. 6, with protests and associated clashes occurring in Aktau, Aktobe, Almaty, Atyrau, Kostanay, Nur-Sultan, Oral, Shymkent, Taraz, Taldykorgan, and Zhanaozen. Numerous incidents of looting, vandalism, and arson have been reported, along with significant amounts of damage to public and private property. Security personnel have been quick to use force to disperse demonstrators. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Internal Affairs has confirmed that, in Almaty, 26 demonstrators have been killed and 26 others injured in unrest-related clashes; at least eight police officers were also killed in the violence. Law enforcement officials reported that about 60 people were injured in the city of Shymkent. Casualty figures will likely rise as the situation becomes more clear over the coming days. According to authorities, approximately 4,000 people have been arrested nationwide in connection with the demonstrations.

Although the unrest has begun showing signs of relenting in a number of areas as of Jan. 7, the security situation remains tense. Sporadic protests continue to take place and the potential for new clashes and other violent incidents remains. In Almaty, reports of gunfire and direct confrontations between armed groups and government forces persist. Future security disturbances are most likely near government facilities, such as local Akimats (regional government buildings), and in prominent city squares; however, media organizations and transportation hubs, including airports and rail stations, could also be targeted by protesters.

A heavy security force presence remains deployed in population centers nationwide, with checkpoints controlling entry and exit. Moreover, a contingent of Russian troops has arrived in Almaty in response to a request by President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev that the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), an international military alliance consisting of six former Soviet states, assist Kazakhstan in restoring order. The CSTO will reportedly be deploying a peacekeeping force of Russian, Armenian, Belarusian, and Tajik troops to Kazakhstan for a limited period to stabilize the country.

Movement and Transportation
Freedom of movement is restricted and there is an official ban on mass gatherings. A nightly 23:00-07:00 curfew is in effect in most parts of the country; however, curfew hours may differ in some municipalities depending on the local situation. Curfew hours in Taraz have been extended to run 19:00-07:00. In Baykonur, curfew hours are 23:00-06:00 with establishments in the city being required to close no later than 22:00. Such measures will probably remain in force for the duration of the state of emergency.

Significant transport disruptions will likely continue in cities most affected by protests and security forces activity over the coming days. Aside from road traffic disruptions resulting directly from the demonstrations, there have been widespread domestic and international flight cancellations. Almaty International Airport (ALA) and Aktau International Airport (SCO) both remain closed as of Jan. 7. Authorities have stated that ALA will not reopen until at least Jan. 9; in the meanwhile, the facility will serve only military flight operations. Unconfirmed reports indicate that SCO may reopen as early as 10:00 Jan. 8.

Several airlines, including Air Arabia (G9), Azerbaijan Airlines (J2), and flydubai (FZ), had earlier suspended all flights to Almaty due to the unstable security situation; it remains unclear whether these carriers will resume serving the city once ALA reopens.

The Kazakhstani Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has refuted media reports claiming that the government has temporarily prohibited all foreign nationals from entering the country; MFA officials assert that no such ban is in place. Furthermore, local officials in Russia report that ground border crossings connecting the Chelyabinsk and Orenburg oblasts with Kazakhstan are operating normally. Most crossing with Kyrgyzstan, including the Korday-Akjol and Kara-Su-Aktilek crossing points, also remain open. Nevertheless, closures and other restrictions on international entry cannot be ruled out in the future if protests should escalate.

As of Jan. 7, railway stations in Almaty are closed and checkpoints have been established at all entrances to the city. Authorities have also closed sections of certain motorways and rail lines in Aktobe, Atyrau, Nur-Sultan, and North Kazakhstan oblasts. At least 25 passenger and 120 freight trains have been canceled nationwide.

Infrastructure
Disruptions to internet services and media broadcasts have been occurring intermittently, primarily as part of the government's effort to control the flow of information and prevent activists from organizing. Outages could occur with little-to-no warning until the demonstrations abate.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan closed all banks nationwide for the day Jan. 6 citing security concerns. While some limited banking services did resume on Jan. 7, most banks probably will not reopen until at least Jan. 10, given traditional closures in observance of the Jan. 7 Orthodox Christmas holiday.

Context

The wave of unrest in Kazakhstan erupted and spread largely spontaneously with no clear leader or activist group as the driving force. Such a lack of a political movement leading the protests makes it unclear as to how long the demonstrations will continue.

President Toqayev has made a number of concessions in an effort to pacify the demonstrators. He has ousted former President Nursultan Nazarbayev from his position as head of the country's National Security Council and has taken the position himself, in addition to accepting the resignation of the cabinet led by Prime Minister Askar Mamin and directing the new acting cabinet to reinstitute price caps on LPG. However, these moves have so far not appeased activists, and protests will likely persist in several cities, especially in Almaty.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to the country until the situation has stabilized. Exercise caution if operating in Kazakhstan and adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities. Prepare for movement restrictions, telecommunications disruptions, and other heightened security measures until at least Jan. 19. Avoid all demonstrations and likely protest sites in Almaty and other protest-affected cities. Confirm flight status if scheduled to travel via Kazakhstani airports; do not check out of accommodations unless onward travel is confirmed. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.