Kazakhstan: Heightened security measures remain in effect nationwide as of Jan. 13 following recent violent unrest /update 10

Event

Kazakhstan is maintaining heightened security measures nationwide as of Jan. 13 in the wake of widespread violent protests that took place in multiple urban centers. However, security operations to apprehend suspected agitators have largely concluded in all parts of the country except Almaty, the wider Almaty Region, and the Zhambyl Region. The 'Critical Red' level of terrorist threat has been withdrawn from all regions except Almaty and Zhambyl. The state of emergency, which is due to expire on Jan. 19, remains in effect in all regions except the North Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, and West Kazakhstan regions. Although large demonstrations and violent clashes have relented, tight security will likely persist for the duration of the state of emergency.

Security checkpoints, including snap checkpoints and military checkpoints, continue to be reported on roads accessing major cities, including Nur-Sultan and Almaty, as well as throughout each city and on intercity routes. Disruptions prompted by security measures remain likely near government facilities, such as local Akimats (regional government buildings), train stations, airports, and prominent city squares. Given the tight security, the potential for further large protests and associated violence is low. A 'Critical Red' level of terrorist threat remains in effect in Almaty, the wider Almaty Region, and the Zhambyl Region, allowing security forces to temporarily restrict the movement of vehicles and conduct searches of vehicles, persons, and residential premises. Security forces continue to conduct targeted operations in Almaty on Jan. 13, including in the Bostandyk residential district and the Turksib industrial area. A 'Yellow' level of terrorist threat, indicating a moderate threat, has been imposed in North Kazakhstan Region until Jan. 26; security checkpoints will likely remain on the outskirts of Petropavlovsk and regional urban centers for the duration.

The withdrawal of a contingent of approximately 2,500 foreign troops from the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) began Jan. 13; their withdrawal is scheduled to take place over 10 days.

Movement and Transportation
Freedom of movement is restricted, and there is an official ban on mass gatherings. A nightly 23:00-07:00 curfew remains in effect in most parts of the country; however, curfew hours may differ in some municipalities depending on the local situation. In Almaty, the curfew runs 20:00-07:00, while it runs 19:00-07:00 in Taraz. Such measures will probably remain in force for the duration of the state of emergency.

Almaty International Airport (ALA) reopened to domestic and international flights early Jan. 13. While all airports in the country are currently open, flight services remain reduced as many domestic and international flights remain canceled. Long-distance rail services are operating normally nationwide. Authorities previously implemented additional long-distance train services between Almaty and Nur-Sultan. Public transport in Almaty resumed full service on Jan. 12. Several airlines are yet to resume flights to Kazakhstan despite the improved security situation, including Aeroflot (SU) and Lufthansa (LH). It remains unclear when most international carriers will resume flights to the country. Aeroflot (SU) has closed ticket sales to destinations within the country through at least Jan. 20.

The Kazakhstani Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has refuted media reports claiming that the government has temporarily prohibited all foreign nationals from entering the country; MFA officials assert that no such ban is in place. Ground border crossings with China, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan are also reportedly open and operating normally. However, authorities have implemented heightened security measures at the border, and enhanced security checks are underway. Closures and other restrictions on international entry cannot be ruled out in the short term if the security environment in the country deteriorates.

Telecommunications and Banking
Disruptions to internet services and media broadcasts continue to occur intermittently, likely as part of the government's effort to control the flow of information and prevent activists from organizing. Outages could occur with little-to-no warning until authorities deem the situation to have sufficiently stabilized.

Banking services have resumed as of Jan. 13; however, numerous ATMs have reportedly run out of cash.

Context

Kazakhstan's Ministry of Internal Affairs previously confirmed that 164 people have been killed in unrest-related clashes and over 9,900 people have been arrested; however the ministry has since withdrawn this assertion, and casualty/arrest figures remain unconfirmed. The worst violence was reported in Almaty, where 103 fatalities occurred. Demonstrations began in Zhanaozen on Jan. 2 in reaction to a major hike in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices. The wave of unrest escalated through Jan. 6, with protests and associated clashes occurring in Aktau, Aktobe, Almaty, Atyrau, Kostanay, Nur-Sultan, Oral, Shymkent, Taraz, Taldykorgan, and Zhanaozen. Security personnel were quick to use force, including live ammunition and tear gas, to disperse crowds. The widespread, largely spontaneous wave of unrest has subsided sharply following the deployment of security forces in urban centers nationwide.

President Toqayev made several concessions in an effort to head off future demonstrations. He has ousted former President Nursultan Nazarbayev from his position as head of the country's National Security Committee and arrested key Nazarbayev appointees in the security sector. Toqayev has also accepted the cabinet's resignation led by former Prime Minister Askar Mamin and directed the new acting cabinet to reinstitute price caps on LPG and a moratorium on government pay.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to the country until the situation has fully stabilized. Exercise caution if operating in Kazakhstan and adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities. Prepare for movement restrictions, telecommunications disruptions, and other heightened security measures until at least Jan. 19. Avoid all demonstrations and likely protest sites in Almaty and other protest-affected cities. Confirm flight status if scheduled to travel via Kazakh airports; do not check out of accommodations unless onward travel is confirmed. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.