Middle East: Adverse weather forecast for Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian Territories, and Syria through at least Jan. 28 /update 1

Event

A weather system currently bringing disruptions to much of Greece and Turkey is forecast to impact the Levant through Jan. 28, bringing cold temperatures, heavy snowfall, and rainfall to parts of the region.

As of early Jan. 27, the Jordan Meteorological Department has issued a weather warning for much of the country for snow accumulation over mountainous terrain, low visibility, fog, and strong winds. Dangerous road conditions are also likely due to precipitation. Snowfall is likely to continue until at least Jan. 27 in higher areas, with rainfall more likely in the south. Flooding is possible in riverine and low-lying areas. In view of the predicted adverse weather, Prime Minister Bisher Al-Khasawneh has announced that working hours will end at 12:00 Jan. 26 in all public institutions and will not resume until Jan. 28.

The Israel Meteorological Service has issued orange weather warnings (the second-highest on a four-tier scale) for moderate to very rough conditions in the Mediterranean Sea and for heavy snow in the north and central mountains through Jan. 27. Yellow flood, flash flood, fog, thunderstorm, and strong wind warnings are in place for the rest of the country.

The Meteorology Department of Syria has warned of cold temperatures, icy conditions in the mountains, and frost and fog for most inland areas. Rainfall is possible in coastal areas. A recent cold wave in northern Syria Jan. 18-19 led to humanitarian concerns over internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the region. At least three fatalities were reported in Aleppo Governorate and more than 2,100 others were affected by the adverse weather in camps across the region. Snow accumulations blocked roads to some of the camps, hampering relief efforts.

The Lebanon Meteorological Service has forecast that frost is likely at areas above 700 meters (2,296 feet) and snow is likely at elevations above 600 meters (1,968 feet) Jan. 27. Scattered rain with possible lightning is forecast Jan. 28. Fog is likely to persist through Jan. 29.

Hazardous Conditions
The adverse weather could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is particularly possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected region.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather could cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the Mediterranean coastline if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding/snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after weather conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in affected areas. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Israel Meteorological Service
Lebanon Meteorological Service
Jordan Meteorological Department (Arabic)