Russia: Adverse weather forecast in Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts through at least Jan. 24

Event

Heavy snowfall, thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, strong winds, freezing rain, ice, avalanches, rough seas, and possible flooding are forecast across Southern and North Caucasian federal districts, Russia, through at least Jan. 24. Krasnodar Krai is forecast to be one of the worst-affected regions, with thunderstorms, rain, sleet, and heavy snow forecast from late Jan. 21-Jan. 23. Snowfall amounts of around 25 cm (10 inches) are possible early Jan. 22. Stormy conditions are also expected along the coast, with waves reaching up to 3.5 meters (11 feet). Flooding could occur in parts of Krasnodar, especially over areas where the ground is already saturated from previous floods Jan. 18, which inundated several roads in the city of Krasnodar.

Government Advisories
As of Jan. 21, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following warnings:

• Orange-level (second-highest level on a four-tired scale) warnings for heavy rainfall, sleet, snow, thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds: Krasnodar Kari.

• Orange avalanche warnings: Krasnodar Krai, Republic of Adygea, Chechen Republic, Kabardino-Balkar Republic, and Republic of Inguhsetia.

• Orange snowfall warnings: Sochi.

• Yellow-level fog, freezing rain, flood, snow, ice, wind, avalanches, and rough sea warnings: across the affected area.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming day.

Hazardous Conditions
The storms could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across southwestern Russia. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash, and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations on the Black Sea Coast if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding or snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Russian)