Russia: Russian troops remain deployed near border with Ukraine as of Jan. 14 /update 5

Event

Heightened military tensions will likely persist between Russia and Ukraine over the short term. As of Jan. 14, over 100,000 additional Russian troops remain deployed in regions bordering or near Ukraine following a series of international meetings to discuss the situation. Russian officials met with their US counterparts in Geneva Jan. 9-10, NATO officials in Brussels on Jan. 12, and attended an OSCE meeting in Vienna on Jan. 13. Russia is demanding security guarantees from the US and NATO that would limit NATO deployments in Eastern Europe and prohibit the expansion of NATO into former Soviet states, such as Ukraine. Neither Russia nor Western nations made any major concessions during the round of talks.

While the likelihood of Russian military action against Ukraine remains low in the wake of the talks, an escalation in tensions on the shared border, as well as an uptick in violent incidents in the Donbas conflict, are possible. Maritime incidents in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are also increasingly possible as Russia attempts to reinforce its bargaining position. Additionally, belligerent actions short of war remain likely, including cyberattacks on sensitive sites or critical infrastructure and aggressive military maneuvers.

The bulk of the additional troops are deployed in the Smolensk Oblast, which borders Belarus; however, significant troop movements are frequently reported in Russia's Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod, Rostov-on-Don, and Voronezh oblasts, which all border Ukraine. Russia already maintains an unknown number of troops in areas bordering Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which are partly under the control of pro-Russia separatist militants, and has also bulked up the forces permanently stationed in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruption on regional highways and arterial rail lines. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near any military sites in Russia and near the border with Ukraine and in areas where additional military units are deployed. Despite the recent deployments, the current threat to businesses operating in Ukraine is unchanged. There is currently no sign of any potential impediment to entry and exit of foreign and local nationals, except current COVID-19-related restrictions.

Context

Russian President Vladimir Putin previously raised the issue of obtaining long-term security guarantees from the West to ensure that Russia's "red lines" on US military assistance to Kyiv and US and NATO activity in the region are respected. The US has repeatedly warned Russia of strong economic and diplomatic measures should Russia launch an offensive into Ukraine and offered Moscow no guarantees against NATO expansion, nor that US assistance to Ukraine would cease. However, the US explicitly ruled out the deployment of any US forces in Ukraine to deter or respond to a potential invasion.

Regional governments and NATO allies will closely monitor the situation and are likely to voice concern over any maneuvers that could be interpreted as belligerent. Russia will likely continue to use such deployments to raise or ease tensions along its western border in reaction to regional developments in the coming months. Strong rhetoric is possible, but a descent into all-out conflict remains unlikely. Isolated border incidents, including along the Ukrainian and Polish borders with Belarus, are also possible, as is an escalation of separatist violence in the conflict areas of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.

While the additional military capabilities likely represent sufficient capacity, Moscow's intention is unclear, and the possibility of Russian military action cannot be ruled out. In such an eventuality, Russian military objectives would likely be limited and aimed at achieving rapid gains from which to call a halt and negotiate from a position of strength before any Western economic retaliation can be mustered.

Advice

Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Check trusted local sources for updated information on potential travel disruptions.