Russia, Ukraine: Military tensions high ahead of Jan. 21 US-Russia talks /update 7

Event

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are rising as of Jan. 20 ahead of a bilateral meeting between US and Russian officials. US Secretary of State James Blinken will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva Jan. 21 to discuss the situation. However, senior US and Ukrainian figures have warned that a Russian attack on Ukraine could occur at short notice.

The Canadian government has urged Canadian nationals to avoid nonessential travel to Ukraine. The US continues to advise citizens to reconsider the need for travel due to the situation. These and other countries could issue updates or similar guidance in the coming days.

Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruption on regional highways and arterial rail lines in Russia. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near any military sites in Russia and near the border with Ukraine and in areas where additional military units are deployed.

Military escalation on the shared border and an uptick in violent incidents in the Donbas conflict are possible. Maritime incidents in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are also increasingly possible as Russia attempts to reinforce its bargaining position. Additionally, belligerent actions short of war remain likely, including cyberattacks on sensitive sites or critical infrastructure and aggressive military maneuvers. Authorities in Ukraine have blamed Russia and Belarus for a cyberattack Jan. 14 that disabled several government websites.

There is currently no sign of any potential impediment to entry and exit of foreign and local nationals, except current COVID-19-related restrictions. Nevertheless, the security situation could deteriorate at short notice, and impediments to international travel would be likely, particularly at Ukrainian airports, in the event of a Russian attack. The outbreak of hostilities could also impact the ability of diplomatic missions to provide consular support. In the event of a conflict, Russian military objectives would likely be limited and aimed at achieving rapid gains from which to call a halt and negotiate from a position of strength before any large-scale, coordinated Western economic retaliation can be mustered. Comments by US President Joe Biden Jan. 19 appeared to suggest that Western retaliation would be less severe in the event of a limited incursion, which could also encourage Moscow to limit any offensive action to existing conflict zones in the Donbas and oblasts along Ukraine’s northern and eastern borders.

Context

More than 100,000 additional Russian troops are deployed in regions bordering or near Ukraine. A large proportion is deployed in Smolensk Oblast, which borders Belarus, and in regions bordering Ukraine, including the Bryansk, Belgorod, and Rostov oblasts. Additionally, significant troop movements are frequently reported in Russia's Kursk and Voronezh oblasts, which both border Ukraine. Russia has also bolstered forces it already maintains in areas bordering Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which are partly under the control of pro-Russia separatist militants, and has also bulked up the forces permanently stationed in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

Talks between US and European officials and Russia Jan. 9-13 failed to deescalate tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is demanding security guarantees from the US and NATO that would limit NATO deployments in Eastern Europe and prohibit the expansion of NATO into former Soviet states, such as Ukraine. Neither Russia nor Western nations made any major concessions during the round of talks. In the wake of the talks, the US also warned that Russia may be seeking a pretext to invade Ukraine and the risk of an invasion was high should diplomacy fail.

The US has repeatedly warned Russia of strong economic and diplomatic measures should Russia launch an offensive into Ukraine and offered Moscow no guarantees against NATO expansion, nor that US assistance to Ukraine would cease. However, the US explicitly ruled out the deployment of any US forces in Ukraine to deter or respond to a potential invasion.

Regional governments and NATO allies will closely monitor the situation and are likely to voice concern over any actions that could be interpreted as belligerent. Strong rhetoric is likely and descent into all-out conflict remains possible. Isolated border incidents, including along the Ukrainian and Polish borders with Belarus, are also possible, as is an escalation of separatist violence in the conflict areas of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.

Advice

Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Ensure that contingency plans are reviewed and regularly updated. Maintain flexible itineraries; monitor local media for updates on the situation and be prepared to change travel plans at short notice in response to developments. Consider avoiding nonessential travel to the immediate vicinity of the Russia Ukraine border until the situation stabilizes. Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Check trusted local sources for updated information on potential travel disruptions.