Europe: Poland bans Russian airlines from its airspace Feb. 25 /update 2

Event

Authorities in Poland have announced on Feb. 25 the impending ban of Russian airlines from Polish airspace as part of sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Council of Ministers is expected to approve the measure within the coming hours.

Russian authorities previously banned UK-based airlines from using Russian airspace on Feb. 25 in retaliation for the UK's decision to ban Russian airlines from UK airspace from Feb. 24. Further sanctions and countersanctions, including flight bans, are likely in the coming hours.

Russia has suspended commercial flight operations at several southern airports through March 2. Impacted airports include Rostov-on-Don Airport (RVI), Krasnodar International Airport (KRR), Anapa Airport (AAQ), Gelendzhik Airport (GDZ), Elista Airport (ESL), Stavropol Shpakovskoye Airport (STW), Belgorod International Airport (EGO), Bryansk International Airport (BZK), Oryol Yuzhny Airport (OEL), Kursk Vostochny Airport (URS), Voronezh International Airport (VOZ), and Simferopol International Airport (SIP). Belarus has announced the partial closure of airspace over the country, including the southern Brest Region and areas south of Asipovichy and Krichev in the Mogilev Region. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has also issued a warning for Ukraine and surrounding regions, including an advisory to avoid using the airspace within 100NM of the Belarus-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine border.

Several countries sharing borders with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have announced heightened security measures. Multiple NATO members in the region have invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty and could increase the readiness of their militaries as a result, though this is not an indication that they expect to become engaged in the conflict.

Moldova and Lithuania have enacted states of emergency. Moldova has also closed its airspace, and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has warned against flying over or near Ukraine. Slovakia has suspended international rail services with Ukraine. Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland are all keeping their respective borders with Ukraine open and are making preparations to receive refugees; these countries are also likely to maintain a heightened troop presence near their borders with Ukraine over at least the short term. Enhanced security measures and a sharp increase in individuals attempting to leave Ukraine will likely result in border crossing delays.

In the coming days, heightened anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. While there is currently no increased direct security threat to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus, isolated incidents of low-level harassment are possible. The frequency of such incidents could increase depending on the severity of any Western economic sanctions.

Potential sanctions and countersanctions could also limit the ability of some foreign nationals to operate in Russia and Belarus and of Russian and Belarusian nationals to operate in Europe. However, foreign nationals seeking to leave Russia or Belarus, or Russians and Belarusians seeking to leave European nations, are highly unlikely to face obstacles. Foreign diplomatic missions in Russia or Belarus could be forced to limit consular services if sanctions prompt expulsions or withdrawals of embassy and consulate staff. While there may be an elevated threat of arbitrary politically-motivated detentions until tensions ease, the likelihood of such actions remains low. Nevertheless, the US embassy in Moscow has warned its citizens of the potential for harassment by Russian government security officials and arbitrary enforcement of local law.

Generalized public fear over the potential impact of strong economic sanctions could prompt shortages of cash at ATMs as citizens attempt to withdraw large quantities of funds, as well as shortages of essential goods due to panic buying.

Context

Several Western governments have imposed additional sanctions on Russia following that nation's military invasion of Ukraine. The new package of measures includes restrictions on financial institutions, bans on technology exports, and measures aimed at members of Putin's inner circle. Additional sanctions are also possible for Belarus which had allowed Russian troops to use its territory for the invasion.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions; defer travel to Ukraine. Exercise heightened vigilance at public gathering places in major urban areas. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa if one is required. Avoid all demonstrations as a routine security precaution and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, or other politically sensitive topics.