Europe: Russian airlines cancel flights as of Feb. 27 in response to EU airspace closures /update 12

Event

Severe air travel disruptions are likely over the coming days as Russian airlines begin canceling flights due to recent moves by a number of European countries closing their airspace to Russian aircraft as part of an increasing package of sanctions against the Kremlin for its recent invasion of Ukraine. On Feb. 27, the nation's flag carrier Aeroflot (SU) announced that it was canceling all of its flights serving Europe effective Feb. 28. The suspension will remain in effect until at least late May and also applies to flights operated by the company's subsidiary Rossiya Airlines (FV). S7 Airlines (S7) has taken similar steps, suspending all of its service to Europe until further notice as of Feb. 26. Additional Russian carriers will almost certainly be forced to cancel their European services over the coming days.

On Feb. 27, European Union officials announced a plan to close all EU airspace to Russian aircraft. The ban prohibits all Russian-owned, -registered, or -controlled aircraft, including private and charter flights, from landing in, taking off from, or transiting any EU nation. The bloc decision by the EU comes after several European countries had already implemented such closures, or announced plans to do so in response to Russia's military action in Ukraine. EU member nations Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, and Romania had earlier announced individual closures, while Denmark and Finland were preparing their own plans. Non-EU members Iceland and the UK had also closed their airspace to Russian aircraft, with Norway planning to follow suit. Outside of Europe, Canada has also closed its airspace to Russian aircraft. Moreover, late Feb. 27, the US Embassy in Moscow advised its citizens to consider leaving Russia immediately using currently available commercial means due to the airspace closures and number of airlines canceling services to and from the country.

Aside from national airspace closures, a number of Western airlines have either partially or fully suspended services using Russian airspace. Air France (AF) has suspended services to and overflights via Russia until further notice. As a consequence, flights to and from China, South Korea, and Japan will be temporarily suspended. Lufthansa (LH), Wizz Air (W6), and KLM (KL) have also halted flights to Russia temporarily; British Airways has stopped its service to Moscow (BA). US carrier Delta (DL) has suspended its code-share arrangement with Russian carrier Aeroflot.

Russia has thus far responded by closing its own airspace to airlines belonging to Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Estonia, the UK, Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, and Romania; however, the government in Moscow will likely expand its airspace closures to target additional nations in retaliation. Russia's Federal Air Transportation Agency (Rosaviatsiya) announced on Feb. 27 that, although flights to and from Kaliningrad are operating, scheduling changes and lengthier flight times are likely since aircraft serving the enclave can only use routes over the Gulf of Finland and international waters of the Baltic Sea. The recent increase in airspace closures on Feb. 27 forced several in-flight Russian airplanes, including those operated by Aeroflot (SU), Ural Airlines (U6), and Rossiya (FV), to return to Russian airports.

Further sanctions and countersanctions, including flight bans, are likely in the coming days.

Russian Domestic Air Restrictions
Russia has suspended commercial flight operations at several southern airports through at least March 2. Impacted airports include Rostov-on-Don Airport (RVI), Krasnodar International Airport (KRR), Anapa Airport (AAQ), Gelendzhik Airport (GDZ), Elista Airport (ESL), Stavropol Shpakovskoye Airport (STW), Belgorod International Airport (EGO), Bryansk International Airport (BZK), Oryol Yuzhny Airport (OEL), Kursk Vostochny Airport (URS), Voronezh International Airport (VOZ), and Simferopol International Airport (SIP).

European Air Travel Restrictions
Belarus has partially closed its airspace, including the southern Brest Region and areas south of Asipovichy and Krichev in the Mogilev Region. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has also issued a warning for Ukraine and surrounding regions, including an advisory to avoid using the airspace within 100 nautical miles (185 km/115 miles) of the Belarus-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine borders. The full warning is available by clicking here. Moldova, on the other hand, has fully closed its airspace.

Heightened Security and General Disruptions
Several countries sharing borders with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have implemented heightened security measures. Multiple NATO members in the region have invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty. They could increase the readiness of their militaries as a result, though this is not an indication that they expect to become engaged in the conflict.

Moldova, Lithuania, and Slovakia have enacted states of emergency. Slovakia has suspended international rail services with Ukraine. Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland are all keeping their respective borders with Ukraine open and are making preparations to receive refugees; these countries are also likely to maintain heightened troop deployments near their borders with Ukraine over at least the short term. Enhanced security measures and a sharp increase in individuals attempting to leave Ukraine will likely result in border crossing delays.

Ukraine has closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; Ukrainian citizens are permitted to return, however.

Sanctions
Authorities in the US, UK, and the EU have agreed to block certain Russian banks from the SWIFT global financial messaging system and impose sanctions on the Russian Central Bank. Authorities have not specified which banks will be affected by this decision; it also remains unclear as to when the decision will come into force.

The US Embassy in Russia issued a statement Feb. 26 noting that it had received multiple reports of non-Russian credit and debit cards being declined in Russia.

Potential sanctions and countersanctions could also limit the ability of some foreign nationals to operate in Russia and Belarus and of Russian and Belarusian nationals to operate in Europe. Still, foreign nationals seeking to leave Russia or Belarus, or Russians and Belarusians seeking to leave European nations, are unlikely to face administrative obstacles although flight availability will be significantly reduced. Foreign diplomatic missions in Russia or Belarus could be forced to limit consular services if sanctions prompt expulsions or withdrawals of embassy and consulate staff. While there may be an elevated threat of arbitrary politically-motivated detentions until tensions ease, the likelihood of such actions remains low.

Generalized public fear over the potential impact of strong economic sanctions could prompt shortages of cash at ATMs as citizens attempt to withdraw large quantities of funds, as well as shortages of essential goods due to panic buying.

Anti-Western Sentiment
In the coming days, heightened anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. While there is currently no increased direct security threat to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus, isolated incidents of low-level harassment are possible. The frequency of such incidents could increase depending on the severity of any Western economic sanctions.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions; defer travel to Ukraine. Exercise heightened vigilance at public gathering places in major urban areas. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa if one is required. Prepare for disruption to card payments in Russia. Ensure alternative payment methods are available. Avoid all demonstrations as a routine security precaution and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, or other politically sensitive topics.

Resources

European Union Aviation Safety Agency
Russian Federal Air Transport Agency