India: Rescheduled elections to occur in Manipur State, Feb. 28 and March 5 /update 1

Event

Elections to the Manipur State assembly will occur in two phases, on rescheduled dates of Feb. 28, and March 5, respectively. The voting days are paid holidays. Officials are scheduled to announce the election results March 10. Increased security deployment and political gatherings are likely throughout the state in the run-up to, during, and immediately after the vote.

Officials have warned of possible militant attacks to derail the polls; multiple insurgent groups such as the Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL), People’s Liberation Army (PLA), People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), and the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) are active in the state. Increased security deployment is likely at sensitive sites such as government buildings, transport hubs, political party offices, residences of politicians, and military facilities.

Political parties will intensify campaign activities ahead of and during the election. Despite a COVID-19-related ban on large rallies, local leaders are likely to organize events with limited participants in compliance with ongoing gathering limits. Security will be extremely tight at campaign rallies attended by prominent political leaders. Unexpectedly large crowds at rallies may cause significant localized transport delays, especially in Imphal.

Political violence has typically spiked in the run-up to, during, and after elections. Minor bombings, shootings, acts of intimidation, and attacks on political party offices, candidates, and supporters could occur at locations statewide. Clashes between rival political factions and between various party supporters and police are possible during rallies and near election centers during polling. Heightened security measures are likely near all active voting and rally sites. Police may establish roadblocks near polling stations to enhance security, leading to localized traffic disruptions.

Protests are possible ahead of and after the elections. Opposition parties could hold demonstrations in response to perceived irregularities. Localized business and traffic disruptions will probably occur near rally sites.

Advice

Prepare for increased security - potentially including roadblocks and identification checks - until the end of the election, especially on polling days. Avoid political party offices, political rallies, polling stations, and government buildings, where political unrest is most likely to occur. If an unruly mob begins forming, immediately leave the area or seek shelter in a secure, nongovernment building. Allow additional time for travel near election events.