Levant: Adverse weather forecast across parts of Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian Territories, and Syria through at least Feb. 12

Event

A southwesterly storm currently over the eastern Mediterranean is forecast to bring adverse weather conditions, including strong winds, rainfall, and snowfall, to parts of Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, and Syria through at least Feb. 12. Strong winds will be felt along Mediterranean coastal regions from Feb. 9 and could cause dust storms in some inland areas due to the arid nature of the region. Thunderstorms and showers associated with the storm are likely in some areas over the coming days, and snow could fall over higher ground.

As of Feb. 9, the Jordan Meteorological Department has issued a weather warning stating strong winds may cause low visibility due to dust storms, especially over inland desert regions. Travel conditions are likely to be made more treacherous by slippery roads in areas that experience precipitation. Rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Aqaba, and fog is likely on mountainous areas overnight. Showers accompanied by thunderstorms are expected to increase in northern parts of the country from late Feb. 9, before spreading into central and some southern regions into Feb. 10. Lighter rainfall is forecast across northern and eastern parts of the country Feb. 11, with continuing moderately strong winds.

The Israel Meteorological Service has issued orange weather warnings (the second-highest on a four-tier scale) for High Sea Swimming Danger along the Mediterranean coast through Feb. 9. Yellow strong wind warnings are in place across much of Israel and the Palestinian Territories.

The Lebanon Meteorological Service has warned of strong winds of up to 70 kph (43 mph) Feb. 9, especially in northern and southern regions. The strong winds will be accompanied by a drop in temperatures, thunderstorms bringing intense rounds of rainfall, and fog and snow in mountainous areas. The adverse conditions are expected to continue into Feb. 10 before improving towards the end of the day. Light rainfall is expected to continue through Feb. 11 and snowfall in the mountains is likely through Feb. 12.

The Meteorology Department of Syria has warned of dusty and misty conditions over eastern and northern regions Feb. 9. Thunderstorms, scattered showers, and rough seas are expected in coastal regions, and snow is expected in areas of higher altitude.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
The storms could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is particularly possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding ins some areas. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high dust levels without rain.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected region.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather could cause some delays and cancellations at airports in the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the Mediterranean coastline if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after weather conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in affected areas. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Israel Meteorological Service
Lebanon Meteorological Service
Jordan Meteorological Department (Arabic)