Russia, Belarus: Heightened anti-western sentiment possible through at least early March

Event

Heightened anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus into at least early March in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. While there is currently no increased direct security threat to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus, isolated incidents of low-level harassment are possible. The frequency of such incidents could increase depending on the severity of any Western economic sanctions. Potential sanctions and countersanctions could also limit the ability of some foreign nationals to operate in Russia and Belarus, though those wishing to depart the country are highly unlikely to face obstacles.

Foreign diplomatic missions in the two countries could be forced to limit consular services if sanctions prompt expulsions or withdrawals of embassy and consulate staff. While there may be an elevated threat of arbitrary politically-motivated detentions until tensions ease, the likelihood of such actions remains low. Nevertheless, the US embassy in Moscow has warned its citizens of the potential for harassment by Russian government security officials and arbitrary enforcement of local law.

Generalized public fear over the potential impact of strong economic sanctions could prompt shortages of cash at ATMs as citizens attempt to withdraw large quantities of funds, as well as shortages of essential goods due to panic buying.

Context

Several Western governments have imposed additional sanctions on Russia Feb. 24 following that nation's military invasion of Ukraine. The new package of measures includes restrictions on financial institutions, bans on technology exports, and measures aimed at members of Putin's inner circle. Additional sanctions are also possible for Belarus which had allowed Russian troops to use its territory for the invasion.

Advice

Exercise heightened vigilance at public gathering places in major urban areas. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa if one is required. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, or other politically sensitive topics.