Russia, Belarus: Russia bans UK airlines from its airspace Feb. 25 /update 1

Event

Russian authorities have banned UK-based airlines from using Russian airspace as of Feb. 25. The move is in retaliation to the UK authority's decision to ban Russian airlines from UK airspace from Feb. 24 as part of sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Further sanctions and countersanctions, including flight bans, are likely in the coming days.

Heightened anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus into at least early March in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. While there is currently no increased direct security threat to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus, isolated incidents of low-level harassment are possible. The frequency of such incidents could increase depending on the severity of any Western economic sanctions.

Additionally, protests by anti-war and opposition activists denouncing the invasion are likely in cities across Russia and Belarus. Activists staged actions in at least 50 Russian cities Feb. 24; further demonstrations are likely in the coming weeks, particularly as the impact of international sanctions is felt. Major cities including Moscow, Saint Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, and Novosibirsk will likely see the largest gatherings; typical locations for demonstrations are prominent public squares, major transport hubs, and government buildings. Russian security services are liable to disperse unauthorized gatherings forcefully. UN officials claim over 1,800 activists were arrested at demonstrations on Feb. 24; bystanders and journalists reporting on demonstrations could become caught up in security force responses.

Potential sanctions and countersanctions could also limit the ability of some foreign nationals to operate in Russia and Belarus, though those wishing to depart the country are highly unlikely to face obstacles. Foreign diplomatic missions in the two countries could be forced to limit consular services if sanctions prompt expulsions or withdrawals of embassy and consulate staff. While there may be an elevated threat of arbitrary politically-motivated detentions until tensions ease, the likelihood of such actions remains low. Nevertheless, the US embassy in Moscow has warned its citizens of the potential for harassment by Russian government security officials and arbitrary enforcement of local law.

Generalized public fear over the potential impact of strong economic sanctions could prompt shortages of cash at ATMs as citizens attempt to withdraw large quantities of funds, as well as shortages of essential goods due to panic buying.

Context

Several Western governments have imposed additional sanctions on Russia as of Feb. 24 following that nation's military invasion of Ukraine. The new package of measures includes restrictions on financial institutions, bans on technology exports, and measures aimed at members of Putin's inner circle. Additional sanctions are also possible for Belarus which had allowed Russian troops to use its territory for the invasion.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Exercise heightened vigilance at public gathering places in major urban areas. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa if one is required. Avoid all demonstrations as a routine security precaution and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, or other politically sensitive topics.