Russia, Ukraine: Aviation and maritime restrictions around disputed Crimean Peninsula in effect Feb. 13-19 during military drills /update 14

Event

Russia has announced that it will unilaterally impose aviation and maritime restrictions over parts of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov adjacent to Crimea Feb. 13-19 during military exercises in the region. The restrictions impact areas of the Black Sea stretching westward from Crimea towards Odessa and southwestward towards Bulgaria, as well as the southern portion of the Sea of Azov. Russia has advised commercial shipping and aviation to avoid the area ahead of live-fire military drills.

Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine Feb. 10 amid continued Russian troop deployments to areas bordering Ukraine. In recent days, several amphibious assault ships and other naval vessels have entered the Black Sea to participate in naval exercises set to conclude Feb. 20. Russia has also reportedly increased troop deployments to the Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts.

The recent deployments bolster the personnel and equipment previously positioned in these areas as well as elsewhere in southwestern Russia including the Rostov and Voronezh oblasts. Additionally, a large number of Russian troops deployed in Belarus are encamped in areas close to the Belarus-Ukraine border, most notably near the towns of Luninets, Rechitsa, and Yelsk. Russia and Belarus will conduct joint maneuvers through February. Exercises will be held across Belarus, including in areas bordering Ukraine, and will likely serve to further pressure Kyiv.

Several foreign governments, including the US, UK, and Canada, have ordered the withdrawal of some embassy staff and all dependents. Australia and the US have both updated their "Do Not Travel" advisories for Ukraine and have urged their citizens to consider departing the country. Canada and the UK also advise against nonessential travel to Ukraine. Japan has announced that some diplomatic staff will be withdrawn from the embassy in Kyiv in the coming days. The US has also updated its Do Not Travel advisory for Belarus due to unusual Russian military activity along Belarus’ border with Ukraine.

Additional governments may issue similar travel advisories for Belarus or Ukraine in the coming days. The recent advisories have not been issued in response to any specific intelligence warning of an imminent attack but are a response to Russia's deployment of substantial numbers of troops near Ukraine's borders and concerns that the Kremlin could order an invasion. The EU maintains that it has no intention of implementing any withdrawals at this stage.

Although flights departing Kyiv and other Ukrainian airports could become crowded in the coming days, there is currently no sign of any potential obstacle to entry and exit by foreign or local nationals, except current COVID-19-related restrictions. Belarusian COVID-19 restrictions prohibit the exit of nationals and many permanent residents via land borders.

Consular services will likely be reduced at the UK, US, and other diplomatic missions that are withdrawing staff. The security situation could deteriorate at short notice, and impediments to international travel would be likely, particularly at Ukrainian airports, in the event of a Russian attack. An outbreak of hostilities would further impact the ability of diplomatic missions to provide consular support.

Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruptions on regional highways and arterial rail lines in Belarus and Russia. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near any military sites in Russia or Belarus, near the border with Ukraine, and in areas where additional military units are deployed.

Military escalation on the shared border and an uptick in violent incidents in the Donbas conflict are possible. Maritime incidents in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are also increasingly possible amid a high level of naval activity by multiple nations in these waters. Belligerent actions short of war remain likely, including cyberattacks on sensitive sites or critical infrastructure and aggressive military maneuvers. Authorities in Ukraine have blamed Russia and Belarus for a cyberattack Jan. 14 that disabled several government websites.

Ukrainian police also arrested a group of individuals Jan. 30 whom they accuse of planning mass riots in several cities with the aim of further destabilizing the security situation in the country. The US has also warned that Russia may be seeking a pretext to invade Ukraine, such as a false flag attack, and the risk of an invasion was high should diplomacy fail.

Context

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain heightened despite continued diplomacy. French President Emanuel Macron met with Russian President Vladimir Putin Feb. 7 to discuss the situation. Following the meeting in Moscow, Putin indicated a compromise was possible, though no major breakthroughs were reached. Macron then met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv Feb. 8 where the French president suggested Putin had agreed there would be no further military escalation or deterioration of the security environment.

Russia is demanding security guarantees from the US and NATO that would limit NATO deployments in Eastern Europe and prohibit the expansion of NATO into former Soviet states, such as Ukraine. In turn, the US has repeatedly warned Russia of strong economic and diplomatic measures should Russia launch an offensive into Ukraine and offered Moscow no guarantees against NATO expansion, nor that US assistance to Ukraine would cease. However, the US explicitly ruled out the deployment of any US forces in Ukraine to deter or respond to a potential invasion.

Strong rhetoric is likely and descent into all-out conflict remains possible. In the event of conflict, Russian military objectives would likely be limited and aimed at achieving rapid gains from which to call a halt and negotiate from a position of strength before any large-scale, coordinated Western economic retaliation can be mustered. Moscow may also assess that a limited military incursion would incur less severe economic sanctions and choose to limit any offensive action to existing conflict zones in the Donbas and oblasts along eastern borders.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Ukraine, as well as Ukrainian border areas of Russia and Belarus, and withdrawing nonessential staff until the situation stabilizes. If planning to leave, book flights as early as possible and arrive at the airport early to prevent your seat being allocated to a standby passenger; allow additional time for processing. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Ensure that contingency plans are reviewed and regularly updated. Maintain flexible itineraries; monitor local media for updates on the situation and be prepared to change travel plans at short notice in response to developments.

Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Check trusted local sources for updated information on potential travel disruptions. Be discreet when discussing the situation, including on social media.