18 Feb 2022 | 08:26 PM UTC
Russia, Ukraine: Sharp rise in ceasefire violations reported along Donbas Line of Contact as of Feb. 18 /update 16
Increased hostilities reported along Donbas Line of Contact in Ukraine as of Feb. 18; tensions between Ukraine and Russia remain high.
Event
Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine as of Feb. 18 following a recent rise in ceasefire violations across the Line of Contact (LoC) in Ukraine's Donbas region. According to a daily report released by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission, as of the evening of Feb. 16, there had been a sharp increase in ceasefire violations, including artillery fire, in both the Donetsk and Luhansk regions over the previous 24 hours. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence and Russian-backed separatists each blame the other for the escalation.
On Feb. 18, separatist leaders in the two break-away regions called for citizens in areas under their control to evacuate to Russia, claiming a Ukrainian offensive into the region was imminent - an assertion the government in Kyiv denies. Moreover, a vehicle explosion was reported near a government building in the separatist-held city of Donetsk during the evening of Feb. 18; however, no casualties were reported and no further information is currently available.
Ukrainian officials and some Western governments claim that the escalation in the conflict the Donbas conflict may be an attempt by the Kremlin to create false provocations as a pretext for invading Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin had stated that Moscow would begin withdrawing its troops from the Ukrainian border Feb. 15. However, US officials assert that this has not occurred and, instead, additional Russian forces have deployed to the border, bringing the total number to around 190,000 troops as of Feb. 18.
Previous deployments bolstered forces in Russia's Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts; many Russian troops have also moved into Belarus and taken up positions close to the Belarus-Ukraine border. Russian forces are ostensibly in Belarus to conduct joint maneuvers. Exercises are being held across Belarus, including in areas bordering Ukraine, through Feb. 20. Russian naval exercises are ongoing around the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov set to conclude Feb. 19.
Embassy Drawdowns and Travel Advisories
A number of countries have drawn down staffing at their diplomatic missions in Ukraine and/or issued special advisories concerning travel in the affected region. The US government has ordered the departure of most staff from its embassy in Kyiv and suspended most consular services at the facility. A small consular presence is located in Lviv for emergencies; however, that location does not provide passport, visa, or routine consular services. Several other nations have also withdrawn some embassy staff and their dependents, including Canada, the UK, and Japan, likely resulting in reduced availability of consular services at those missions.
US and UK authorities have advised their citizens to depart Ukraine immediately while commercial means are still available. Australia advises against all travel to Ukraine, while Canada advises against nonessential travel. The US has also updated its Do Not Travel advisory for Belarus and Moldova due to unusual Russian military movements.
Transportation and Infrastructure
With the exception of existing COVID-19-related restrictions, there are currently no obstacles to entry into and exit from Ukraine by foreign or local nationals. Nevertheless, the security situation could deteriorate at short notice, resulting in significant impediments to international travel, particularly at Ukrainian airports. An outbreak of hostilities would also further impact the ability of diplomatic missions to provide consular support.
Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruptions on regional highways and arterial rail lines in Belarus and Russia. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near military sites in Russia or Belarus, the border with Ukraine, and in areas where military units are deployed. Maritime incidents in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are also increasingly possible amid a high level of naval activity by multiple nations in these waters.
Belligerent actions short of war remain likely, including cyberattacks on sensitive sites or critical infrastructure and aggressive military maneuvers. Authorities in Ukraine have blamed Russia and Belarus for a Jan. 14 cyberattack that disabled several government websites.
Context
Ongoing diplomatic efforts have as yet done little to ease tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Moscow has asserted it will respond with "military-technical measures" if its demands are not met. US officials maintain there is a very high threat of a Russian invasion in the next several days. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have reportedly agreed to meet in Europe during the week of Feb. 21.
Russia is demanding security guarantees from the US and NATO that would limit NATO deployments in Eastern Europe and prohibit the expansion of NATO into former Soviet states, such as Ukraine. In turn, the US has repeatedly warned Russia of strong economic and diplomatic measures should Russia launch an offensive into Ukraine. Washington has also offered Moscow no guarantees that NATO would refrain from further expansion or that US assistance to Ukraine would cease. However, the US explicitly ruled out the deployment of any US forces in Ukraine to deter or respond to a potential invasion.
In the event of a conflict, Russian military objectives would likely be limited and aimed at achieving rapid gains from which to call a halt and negotiate from a position of strength before any large-scale, coordinated Western economic retaliation can be mustered. Moscow may also assess that a limited military incursion would incur less severe economic sanctions and choose to limit any offensive action to existing conflict zones in the Donbas and oblasts along eastern borders.
Advice
Consider deferring nonessential travel to Ukraine and Ukrainian border areas of Russia and Belarus and withdrawing nonessential staff until the situation stabilizes. If planning to leave, book flights as early as possible and arrive at the airport early to prevent your seat from being allocated to a standby passenger; allow additional time for processing. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Ensure that contingency plans are reviewed and regularly updated. Maintain flexible itineraries, monitor local media for updates on the situation, and be prepared to change travel plans at short notice in response to developments.
Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Check trusted local sources for updated information on potential travel disruptions. Be discreet when discussing the situation, including on social media.
