Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine calls up military reservists, urges citizens to leave Russia Feb. 23 /update 19

Event

Ukraine has announced the call-up of military reservists to the armed forces beginning Feb. 23. Approximately 36,000 reservists will be called up to bring military units up to combat strength. The limited mobilization of reservists serves as a strong indicator that Kyiv believes conflict with Russia is probable and imminent. Accordingly, Ukraine has urged citizens in Russia to leave the country immediately amid the elevated threat of conflict between the two nations. Additionally, the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine has recommended the introduction of a 30-day state of emergency in all regions except Donetsk and Luhansk; the measure is expected to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) shortly.

The latest moves from Ukraine come in the wake of Russia's Feb. 21 formal recognition of the breakaway separatist areas in the Donbas region as independent states and the subsequent deployment of an unknown number of Russian troops in these regions Feb. 22. Furthermore, Russia signed "friendship, co-operation, and mutual assistance" treaties with the separatist leaders. The separatists allege Russia supports their territorial claims beyond the areas currently under their control; it is not clear whether the newly deployed troops will be ordered to assist the separatists in seizing additional territory.

Hostilities across the Line of Contact (LoC) in Ukraine's Donbas region have continued to escalate in recent days, with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission reporting increased violations daily. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence and Russian-backed separatists each blame the other for the escalation.

Separatist leaders in the two breakaway oblasts have reportedly mobilized able-bodied military-aged men and called on residents in areas under their control to evacuate to Russia, claiming a Ukrainian offensive into the region is imminent - an assertion Kyiv denies. In response, Russia's Rostov, Voronezh, and Kursk oblasts, which border Ukraine, have declared states of emergency (SoE), ostensibly to manage the expected influx of refugees from separatist-held areas. According to the Luhansk separatist government's press service, tens of thousands of residents have evacuated the region.

Previous Russian troop deployments bolstered forces in Russia's Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts; many Russian troops have also moved into Belarus and taken up positions close to the Belarus-Ukraine border. Russian forces are ostensibly in Belarus to conduct joint maneuvers; however, the two nations have indefinitely extended the military exercises beyond their scheduled end date of Feb. 20. Additionally, Russia has also bolstered naval forces in the region and issued a notice to airmen (NOTAM) to avoid the airspace over the Sea of Azov from 00:01 Feb. 22.

Embassy Drawdowns and Travel Advisories
Several countries have variously drawn down staffing at their diplomatic missions, issued special advisories concerning travel in the region, or instructed their citizens to immediately leave the country, including the UK, France, Canada, Japan, and Australia. The US government has ordered the departure of most staff from its embassy in Kyiv and suspended consular services at the facility. For emergencies, a small consular presence is located in Lviv; however, that location does not provide passport, visa, or routine consular services. Additionally, as of Feb. 23, Russia has announced it will evacuate its diplomatic missions in Ukraine. An outbreak of hostilities would also further impact the ability of diplomatic missions to provide consular support.

The US, UK, and Germany have instructed their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. Australia advises against all travel to Ukraine, while France and Canada advise against nonessential travel. French and Turkish authorities have also called on their citizens in eastern Ukraine to leave that part of the country immediately. France further advises citizens to refrain from traveling to the country's northern and eastern border areas. The US has also updated its Do Not Travel advisories for Belarus and Moldova due to unusual Russian military movements.

Transportation and Infrastructure
Except for existing COVID-19-related restrictions, there are currently no major administrative obstacles to entry into and exit from Ukraine by foreign or local nationals. Nevertheless, the security situation could deteriorate at short notice, resulting in significant impediments to international travel, particularly at Ukraine's airports. Notably, Lufthansa (LH) and Lufthansa Group airlines, including Swiss International Air Lines (LX) and Austria Airlines (OS), have suspended flights with Kyiv and Odesa. Air France (AF) canceled flights with Kyiv scheduled for Feb. 22 and will evaluate whether further cancellations are necessary in the coming days.

Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruptions on regional highways and arterial rail lines in Belarus and Russia. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near military sites in Russia or Belarus, the border with Ukraine, and in areas where military units are deployed. Maritime incidents in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are also increasingly possible amid a high level of naval activity by multiple nations in these waters.

Belligerent actions short of war remain likely, including cyberattacks on sensitive sites or critical infrastructure and aggressive military maneuvers. Authorities in Ukraine have blamed Russia and Belarus for a Jan. 14 cyberattack that disabled several government websites.

Context

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine will likely continue to intensify in the coming days as Ukraine gradually intensifies its response to Russia's occupation of the Donbas. Moscow claims the troops have been deployed to the region to conduct "peacekeeping operations." Ukraine has refrained from militarily responding to provocations in the Donbas; however, Russia-backed forces may be seeking a pretext to invade Ukraine and potentially seize government-controlled areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

In some of its most recent provocations, separatist officials asserted on Feb. 22 that Ukrainian saboteurs had detonated an explosive device on a Donestk highway resulting in the deaths of three civilians, and on Feb. 21 Moscow stated that Russian forces had destroyed two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles that had allegedly violated its border by entering the Rostov Oblast to extract a saboteur team. Separately, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) earlier alleged a Russian border post near the village of Scherbakovo in the Rostov Oblast was destroyed by Ukrainian shelling; no casualties were reported. It is impossible to independently verify many of the claims made by either side, both nations consistently deny each other's assertions. Nevertheless, such reports are becoming increasingly common as tensions mount.

Major Western nations, including the US, UK, and EU, have sanctioned individuals and banks considered close to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Germany has suspended the certification process for the already-controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The US has also blocked any new investment in the occupied Donbas region. Initial Western retaliation for Russia's recognition of the Donbas separatist republics is likely to be limited to targeted financial sanctions provided Russia confines its actions to separatist-held areas, with harsher, wider sanctions likely being held back to deter further expansion into Ukraine.

Diplomatic efforts have as yet done little to ease tensions. Russia is demanding security guarantees from the US and NATO that would limit NATO deployments in Eastern Europe and prohibit the expansion of NATO into former Soviet states, such as Ukraine. In turn, the US has warned Russia of firm retaliatory measures should Russia launch an offensive into Ukraine. Moscow has asserted it will respond with "military-technical measures" if its demands are not met; however, the US has refused to guarantee that NATO would refrain from further expansion or that US assistance to Ukraine would cease.

US officials continue to assert that the threat of a Russian invasion remains high. In the event of a conflict, Russian military objectives would likely be limited and aimed at achieving rapid gains from which to call a halt and continue negotiations from a presumed position of strength. The rhetoric out of Moscow suggests that the Kremlin could be preparing for action aimed at pushing Ukrainian government forces out of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, completely.

Advice

Consider deferring travel to Ukraine and Ukrainian border areas of Russia and Belarus and withdrawing staff until the situation stabilizes. If planning to leave, book flights as early as possible and arrive at the airport early to prevent your seat from being allocated to a standby passenger; allow additional time for processing. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Ensure that contingency plans are reviewed and regularly updated. Maintain flexible itineraries, monitor local media for updates on the situation, and be prepared to change travel plans at short notice in response to developments.

Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Check trusted local sources for updated information on potential travel disruptions. Be discreet when discussing the situation, including on social media.

Resources

British Embassy in Ukraine
French Embassy in Kyiv
US Embassy in Ukraine