Russia, Ukraine: US orders departure of family members of US government employees from Belarus Jan. 31 /update 12

Event

The US State Department ordered the withdrawal of family members of US government employees in Belarus and updated its "Do Not Travel" advisory Jan. 31 due to an increase in unusual and concerning military activity near the border with Ukraine. The order came hours after a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting at which US diplomats accused Russia of intending to increase its troop presence in Belarus near the Ukraine border to 30,000 from an existing 5,000. This order adds to an existing "Do Not Travel" advisory for Belarus due to the arbitrary enforcement of laws and the risk of detention in the country. Additional governments may issue similar travel advisories for Belarus in the coming days.

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain heightened despite continued diplomacy. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva Jan. 21 to discuss the situation. The two sides did not reach a breakthrough but agreed to hold further discussions; Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany also held talks on the crisis in Paris on the same day. Blinken and Lavrov are scheduled to talk via phone again on Feb. 1 following the confrontational UNSC meeting Jan. 31.

The UK Embassy in Kyiv is withdrawing some staff and their dependents from Ukraine; moreover, several nations, including Canada and the UK, are advising against nonessential travel to the country or that nonessential personnel be withdrawn. Other governments, including that of Australia, are advising their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately if safe to do so. The US Embassy in Kyiv is urging US citizens to consider departing Ukraine using currently available commercial means and has ordered dependents of US staff to leave the country. Many governments are advising their nationals to register their presence in Ukraine with the relevant diplomatic mission. Various foreign diplomatic missions will likely release updated advice in the coming days. The recent advisories have not been issued in response to any specific intelligence warning of an imminent attack but are a response to Russia's deployment of substantial numbers of troops near Ukraine's borders and concerns that the Kremlin could order an invasion. The EU maintains that it has no intention of implementing any withdrawals at this stage.

Although flights departing Kyiv and other Ukrainian airports could become crowded in the coming days, there is currently no sign of any other potential obstacle to entry and exit by foreign or local nationals, except current COVID-19-related restrictions. Belarusian COVID-19 restrictions prohibit the exit of nationals and many permanent residents via land borders. Consular services will likely be reduced at the UK, US, and other diplomatic missions that are withdrawing staff. The security situation could deteriorate at short notice, and impediments to international travel would be likely, particularly at Ukrainian airports, in the event of a Russian attack; an outbreak of hostilities would further impact the ability of diplomatic missions to provide consular support.

Road and rail movement of large numbers of military vehicles could cause temporary disruptions on regional highways and arterial rail lines in Russia. Increased scrutiny of foreigners' identity and visa documentation is likely near any military sites in Russia or Belarus, near the border with Ukraine, and in areas where additional military units are deployed.

Military escalation on the shared border and an uptick in violent incidents in the Donbas conflict are possible. Maritime incidents in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are also increasingly possible as Russia attempts to reinforce its bargaining position. Additionally, belligerent actions short of war remain likely, including cyberattacks on sensitive sites or critical infrastructure and aggressive military maneuvers. Authorities in Ukraine have blamed Russia and Belarus for a cyberattack Jan. 14 that disabled several government websites. Ukrainian police also arrested a group of individuals Jan. 30 whom they accuse of planning mass riots in several cities with the aim of further destabilizing the security situation in the country.

Context

Ukraine reports that up to 175,000 additional Russian troops are deployed in regions bordering or near Ukraine; however, Russia appears to have increased operational security and now conducts many transfers at night, increasing the difficulty of assessments. A large proportion is deployed in Smolensk Oblast, which borders Belarus, and in regions bordering Ukraine, including Bryansk, Belgorod, and Rostov oblasts. Additionally, significant troop movements are frequently reported in Russia's Kursk and Voronezh oblasts, which both border Ukraine. In recent days, Russia has also deployed an unknown number of troops, aircraft, and advanced air defense systems to Belarus, ostensibly for joint maneuvers; exercises will be held across Belarus, including in areas bordering Ukraine, and will likely serve to apply further pressure on Kyiv. Russia previously bolstered forces it already maintains in areas bordering Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which are partly under the control of pro-Russia separatist militants, and has also bulked up the forces permanently stationed in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

Talks between US and European officials and Russia have so far failed to deescalate tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is demanding security guarantees from the US and NATO that would limit NATO deployments in Eastern Europe and prohibit the expansion of NATO into former Soviet states, such as Ukraine. Neither Russia nor Western nations thus far made any major concessions. In the wake of the talks, the US also warned that Russia may be seeking a pretext to invade Ukraine and the risk of an invasion was high should diplomacy fail.

The US has repeatedly warned Russia of strong economic and diplomatic measures should Russia launch an offensive into Ukraine and offered Moscow no guarantees against NATO expansion, nor that US assistance to Ukraine would cease. However, the US explicitly ruled out the deployment of any US forces in Ukraine to deter or respond to a potential invasion.

Regional governments and NATO allies will closely monitor the situation and are likely to voice concern over any actions that could be interpreted as belligerent. Strong rhetoric is likely and descent into all-out conflict remains possible. Isolated border incidents, including along the Ukrainian and Polish borders with Belarus, are also possible, as is an escalation of separatist violence in the conflict areas of the Donbas in eastern Ukraine. In the event of a conflict, Russian military objectives would likely be limited and aimed at achieving rapid gains from which to call a halt and negotiate from a position of strength before any large-scale, coordinated Western economic retaliation can be mustered. Comments by US President Joe Biden Jan. 19 appeared to suggest that Western retaliation would be less severe in the event of a limited incursion, which could also encourage Moscow to limit any offensive action to existing conflict zones in the Donbas and oblasts along Ukraine's borders east of the Dnieper River.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Ukraine, as well as Ukrainian border areas of Russia and Belarus, and withdrawing nonessential staff until the situation stabilizes. If planning to leave, book flights as early as possible and arrive at the airport early to prevent your seat being allocated to a standby passenger; allow additional time for processing. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Ensure that contingency plans are reviewed and regularly updated. Maintain flexible itineraries; monitor local media for updates on the situation and be prepared to change travel plans at short notice in response to developments.

Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Check trusted local sources for updated information on potential travel disruptions. Be discreet when discussing the situation, including on social media.