UK, Ireland: Storms Dudley and Eunice forecast to bring adverse weather across much of Ireland and the UK Feb. 16-18 /update 2

Event

Successive storms are forecast to bring adverse weather across much of Ireland and the Uk through at least Feb. 18. Storm Dudley is forecast to bring strong winds across Ireland and central parts of the UK Feb. 16-17. The storm will be closely followed by Storm Eunice, which is forecast to impact much of Ireland and the UK Feb. 18. There is still some uncertainty over the timing and location of the strongest winds; however, Dudley is forecast to bring inland gusts of 97-113 kph (60-70 mph) to central parts of the UK and may reach 121-129 kph (75-80 mph) in a few places. In Ireland, Dudley will bring winds of 50-65 kph (31-40 mph), with damaging gusts of 80-110 kph (50-68 mph). Eunice is expected to bring similar strength winds to Dudley, although gusts of up to 161 kph (100 mph) are possible around the coasts of Wales and southwest England. The strong winds are likely to be accompanied by heavy precipitation, including snowfall over higher elevations.

Government Advisories
As of Feb. 16, Met Eireann has issued yellow wind warnings (the lowest tier on a three-tier scale) across Ireland Feb. 16 due to Dudley and Feb. 18 due to Eunice. Yellow small craft warnings have been issued for all coasts of Ireland through at least Feb. 18.

The UK Met Office has issued an amber wind warning (the middle tier on a three-tier scale) for parts of northern Northern Ireland, southern Scotland, and northern England Feb. 16. A broader yellow wind warning is in effect for the whole of Northern Ireland, northern and central Wales, southern and central Scotland, and northern and central England through early Feb. 17. With Storm Eunice due to arrive shortly after Dudley, authorities have also issued an amber wind warning for Wales and southern, central, and northwestern England Feb. 18. Yellow wind and snow warnings have been issued for Northern Ireland, southern Scotland, and northern England Feb. 18. England's Environment Agency, Natural Resources Wales, and Scottish Environment Protection Agency have issued several flood alerts and one flood warning as of Feb. 16.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
The storms could produce rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is especially possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides are possible in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur in storm-affected areas.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding or snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and track blockages. Most of ScotRail's domestic train services are scheduled to stop 16:00 Feb. 16 due to the storm. Services on the Far North, Kyle of Lochalsh, and Aberdeen-Inverness lines are scheduled to continue running as they are outside the weather warning area.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Out of an abundance of caution, confirm all transport reservations before traveling in affected areas. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Met Eireann
Met Office UK
Scottish Environment and Protection Agency Flood Updates
Environment Agency England Flood Alerts
Natural Resources Wales Flood Warnings